Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 29.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
Ant is taking over, plain and simple. With the Wolves lacking any kind of true point guard play, it’s up to a player of his ability to create offense singlehandedly. And that’s what he’s been doing, finishing November with 29.7 points per game, while going 8-5 over this total with 5 games of 35-plus points thrown in.
Tonight should be an opportunity to extend this streak of 5 straight games with 30-plus as New Orleans should have no hope of stopping him. The Pelicans are one of the worst defenses in a league that has the Nets and Wizards, ranking 29th in defensive efficiency and dead last in effective field goal rate allowed. They’re also 30th in two-point percentage allowed, so Ant should get whatever he wants at the rim and pile up easy points here.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Georgia State @ Mercer -10.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
This game comes down to shooting, and Georgia State has none. There are only three teams in the whole country who are worse for effective field goal percentage and two-point percentage than the Panthers offense, which also sits 354th in adjusted efficiency. Georgia State has struggled to keep games close, going just 2-5 ATS so far, and the ones they’ve stayed competitive in were the result of them living at the free throw line. Mercer doesn’t foul though, and are one of the best teams in the country at limiting free throw production. The Bears should be able to get to the rim a lot in this game too, and produce easy points to help them pull away from a hapless offense.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) North Carolina @ Kentucky -5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN
I think North Carolina is a pretty good team, but they haven’t proven anything away from home this season and I think that bites them here. The Heels were absolutely stomped by Michigan State the last time they faced a premier opponent outside of Chapel Hill, and it will be a madhouse at Rupp Arena tonight. Kentucky is in a very critical position here after two losses away from home to high level opponents themselves, and that urgency should help them in this one.
I also see some important matchup advantages for the Wildcats, even though they’ll be shorthanded on the interior. But even if Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar go nuts down low for UNC, they won’t be able to stop UK on the other end, not without Seth Trimble available tonight. Kentucky’s offense is too good when they play with pace and Otega Oweh can get into the lane, which seems like the exact recipe for tonight. This should be a fun one, but ultimately I agree with the KenPom projection that this could be a double-digit margin and laying the key number of 5 is a good bargain.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 31-36 (-2.59 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
