Locks
NFL (0.75 Unit) Dallas Cowboys/Detroit Lions First Half Over 27 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on Prime Video
I would really like to recommend betting the Cowboys on the spread and even to win straight up, but it seems like everyone from the sharpest to squarest bettors share that opinion. So I’m scared of the popularity there, but I’m not scared away from this first half total that I think these two teams are very capable of clearing.
If you’re saying Thursday night games are lower-scoring because of the short turnaround, let me stop you right there. These teams are on full rest, plus 9 of the 12 standalone Thursday games this season have seen higher-scoring first halves than second halves.
And these teams tend to erupt early in games, especially in this situation with the Cowboys on the road and the Lions at home. Cowboys road games have gone 6-0 to the first half over, with 34.2 points on average, while Lions home games are 5-1 to the first half over with 30.8 points on average. These two offenses, even with Detroit’s injuries, are too good indoors and should trade plenty of scores to open this game.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit) Dallas Cowboys Team Total Over 26.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
This is a good way to blend my opinions of the Cowboys being the right side in this game with the prediction of lots of points. Dallas is leading the league with a 10-2 record over their team total this season, and have cleared this number 7 times.
Detroit has surrendered this many points 5 times, including 3 of 5 games since their bye, and the past couple have shown just how vulnerable the back end of their defense continues to be. An underappreciated angle tonight is the Cowboys looking for revenge after Detroit beat them 47-9 in Jerry World last year, so I would expect them to run it up if the opportunity is there.
Extra Bonus Bet (1 Unit) Dak Prescott Over 271 Passing Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
This number has been flying up, but I still like it here. Dak should be able to throw all over this Detroit secondary that has been shredded by much lesser offenses the past several games. Playing in a dome helps as he’s 5-2 over this number indoors this season, averaging 305 yards per game in those contests. Detroit’s defense hasn’t faced a passing offense this good all season, and regardless of game script I think the Cowboys will be throwing all night.
Double Extra Bonus Bet (1 Unit) George Pickens Longest Reception Over 27 Yards (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
Giving up big plays is what Detroit’s defense does, as they’ve allowed a reception longer than this in every game this season without exactly facing elite QB/WR combos. It’s an elite QB/WR/WR trio in this game, and Pickens is the big play threat with a catch over this number in 8 games this year. Detroit is allowing the longest average depth of target in the league, and I think Pickens makes at least one splash play.
Extra Bonus Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.75 Unit – Jahmyr Gibbs Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Isaac TeSlaa Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – CeeDee Lamb Over 6.5 Receptions (+105)
0.25 Unit – Jake Ferguson Anytime TD (+150)
NBA (1 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 29.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports North
Competing priorities here as the Wolves tip off around the same time the Cowboys game kicks off, but at least Iowa State played last night. Hopefully the Wolves used their off night yesterday to work on what caused the Pelicans to give them a scare on Tuesday, and maybe Ant won’t need to drop 44 again. But crossing the 30-point mark is just basic stuff for him right now, and I think he can have another monster game if he wants to.
It should start earlier tonight instead of going nuclear after halftime, especially if the Wolves come out with a greater sense of urgency. But all the same reasons from Tuesday’s game apply here, as the Pels are horrible defensively inside, and even throwing double teams at Ant couldn’t slow him down. What’s incredible is not only is Ant averaging 38.3 PPG the past 6 outings, but take away free throws and he’s still scoring 31.7, so one of the worst defenses in the league is not stopping him tonight.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Timberwolves/Pelicans First Half Over 113.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel)
With a full game total of 234.5 this first half number should be higher than it is. We’re not getting overtime in back-to-back games, and neither team scores or allows a meaningfully different amount of points in second halves to justify this split on the total.
I also think the Wolves put a big number on the Pelicans right away tonight in a better effort than Tuesday, and New Orleans allows 60.0 first half points per game. Minnesota scoring at that level while factoring in the first half spread of 6.5 points puts us right on this number, but the Wolves have had much higher-scoring first halves recently as Ant goes wild and I think we’ll easily clear this number tonight.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Michael Porter Jr Over 26.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on YES
We were on Porter last night and he paid off with a monster 33-point game, so let’s go back to the well. There’s a significant adjustment of 2 full points from last night’s point total, but this should be another opportunity for him to go off against a bad defense. The total in this game of 232.5 points implies a serious lack of defense from both teams since they’re in the bottom quarter of the league for offensive efficiency.
Utah brings a defense that is 28th in efficiency, so Porter should be able to continue this run he’s on of 28.3 PPG the past 10 fully healthy games. MPJ has truly been on fire in his past 6 healthy games, shooting well over 50% from the field, so a Jazz defense that is bottom-5 in opponent shooting metrics should let him get whatever he wants tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 31-35 (-1.39 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
