Locks
NCAA Football (0.75 Unit) 3-Team 7 Point Teaser (+120; Odds via Caesars)
Troy/James Madison Over (39.5): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
I think the total for this game is a little low based on the situation for James Madison, so the adjusted number here is even more attractive. The Dukes are in striking distance for the CFP, and a win certainly gives them a solid case, but running up the score is very important if the opportunity is there. The committee will do everything it can to leave out the small school from western Virginia unless they simply can’t ignore the statement JMU makes.
But the Dukes need to be careful, because Troy has been far better offensively since Goose Crowder took over at QB for the injured Tucker Kilcrease and the Trojans should be able to put up points here. JMU should be able to dictate the style of game on their home field, and the fact that they’ve gone 11-1 over this adjusted total on the season makes me feel pretty comfortable whether this is a tight game or a blowout.
Kennesaw St/Jacksonville St Over (53.5): 6:00 PM CT on CBSSN
While the Conference USA winner from this game is nowhere near the CFP conversation, I think we see a fun game unfold here. These teams already combined for 61 points in their regular season meeting, thus the posted total being essentially on that same number. That game should’ve had far more scoring though, as Kennesaw shot themselves in the foot with 4 turnovers while not taking the ball away once.
The Owls still racked up 579 yards of offense in the game, and should be out for revenge. Kennesaw has an excellent offense behind QB Amari Odom, and should once again throw all over a Gamecocks defense that’s 112th in passing yards allowed. But Kennesaw really struggled in that first matchup to stop the Jacksonville ground game with an excellent running back and dual threat QB in Caden Creel. So this kind of number should be easily reachable with two underrated offenses facing off on turf, and a lack of truly high stakes.
North Texas/Tulane Over (59.5): 7:00 PM CT on ABC
This is undoubtedly the game of the night, with extremely high stakes for both teams. The path is there for either the Mean Green or Green Wave to grab a CFP spot with a win, but I think it needs to be a convincing one just in case. That’s the specialty of North Texas right now, who hasn’t allowed a single opponent to be competitive since getting blown out in a weird game against South Florida.
This is the country’s best statistical offense, although UNT hasn’t really played anyone. Tulane is decent, but in their only two games against top-20 offenses they gave up 38.5 points and 7.1 yards per play. With North Texas consistently putting up 50-burgers, they could be in line for another big night. And if the opportunity presents itself for either team to run it up against the other, those style points are going to matter as the winner waits to see what happens in the ACC tomorrow. Both offenses are highly capable, both defenses are vulnerable, and the forecast looks better than expected, so I think points are coming here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Denver Nuggets/Atlanta Hawks Over 237.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
The Hawks are kind of difficult to figure out, especially lately as some key injuries have shaken up their lineup. I would expect Jalen Johnson and Kristaps Porzingis to return tonight, but monitor their status all the same. The team that isn’t tough to figure out right now though is Denver, who gets into shootouts on a nightly basis regardless of opponent.
With 6 straight games going well over this total along with 8 of the past 9, this Nuggets defense is struggling without Aaron Gordon and being shorthanded overall. Denver is playing with a lot of pace and not a lot of defense, so a Hawks squad that is top-10 in shooting should be able to capitalize on all the extra possessions against a weak defense to send this over the total.
NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks/OKC Thunder Over 229.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:30 PM CT on Prime Video
The first meeting between these teams had a closing total of 225 points, and the game finished with 195 on the board. So why is tonight’s game featuring a total of 4.5 points higher after such a low-scoring night that saw two sub-40 point quarters? It’s about what didn’t happen in that game more than what did, and how different both of these teams are today.
The Mavericks are finally getting healthier, and the insertion of RJ Nembhard at the point has completely changed the offensive outlook for Dallas. This OKC defense will be a different test for the rookie, but the early returns are fantastic and we might be in a blowout over situation anyway.
OKC now has Jalen Williams back in the mix for an offense that was already on an upward trajectory, but has scored 123, 123, and 124 points in his three games. The Thunder are also a little thin up front, so the Dallas size should get them some easy points inside tonight which they’ll need to keep pace with this insanely talented OKC squad, and I think that adds up to an over when you read between the lines.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 28-33 (-1.14 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
