Locks
NFL (0.5 Unit) 2-Team 6 Point Teaser (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:15 PM CT on ABC
Philadelphia Eagles @ LA Chargers (+8.5)
The Eagles are going to have to prove it to me off two losses where the offense has been stuck in the mud, and the defense hasn’t stopped much of anything when it matters. Nick Sirianni isn’t particularly good at proving it off a loss, as Philly is just 8-15 ATS the week after a straight up loss, making him the least profitable of 70 coaches in this situation since 2021.
We might be looking at another late-season collapse for the Eagles like in 2023, and if that’s the case then I definitely want to be padding the margin here with LA. When you make Justin Herbert an underdog of more than three points he’s 12-6-1 ATS and very good on teased numbers as well, so I see a Chargers squad desperate to stay in the division race making this a close game.
Philadelphia Eagles/LA Chargers Under (47.5)
This number becomes much too high for the type of game that I think is coming tonight. I think we’ll see a lot of ground and pound here by both teams thanks to several factors. With Justin Herbert’s surgically-repaired left hand making things dicey for LA, they’re likely to keep it on the ground as much as possible. That’s made significantly easier by the return of Omarion Hampton tonight, along with the fact that Eagles run stuffer Jalen Carter will be out.
But Philly will want to keep it on the ground as well, since the passing game has been rough recently and they’ve made a point of announcing that Jalen Hurts will be more involved with designed runs. It’s much easier to run on the Chargers than to pass, so I think that’s the easiest path to success for the Eagles tonight. If both teams are keeping it on the ground tonight, the clock will drain quickly and I don’t think we’ll see enough scoring to reach this adjusted total.
Monday Night Football Prop Picks (Odds via DraftKings)
0.5 Unit – Jalen Hurts Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.5 Unit – Justin Herbert Under 18.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – Dallas Goedert Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
0.25 Unit – AJ Brown Alt Over 5.5 Receptions (+125)
0.25 Unit – AJ Brown Anytime TD (+175)
0.25 Unit – Jalen Hurts Anytime TD (+105)
0.25 Unit – Kimani Vidal Anytime TD (+290)
NBA (0.5 Unit) Anthony Edwards Over 3.5 Made Three’s (+115; Odds via DraftKings): 6:30 PM CT on Peacock
That incredible run of 6 games where Edwards averaged 38.3 points per game kicked off against none other than the Suns who come to Target Center tonight. After two games of coming back down to earth, I think the opportunity is there for Ant to get back to his high-scoring ways, and if he’s going to do it here, the three-point line will be a big factor. He drained 5 from long range in that first meeting in Phoenix, and then proceeded to go over this number every game in the 6-game stretch.
The Suns are somewhat vulnerable on the perimeter in general, ranked 15th in opponent three-point percentage overall, which drops to 21st in road games. And with Jalen Green remaining out, Devin Booker sidelined tonight, and Dillon Brooks questionable, there should be plenty of opportunity for Ant to fire away from deep. A return to high volume three-point shooting should get him there, and this juicy return is worth a play.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Kansas State Team Total Over 96.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 7:00 PM CT on ESPN+
Get right game here, plain and simple. Kansas State needs one in the worst way after a hot start to the season turned ice cold, with four rough losses in a row. The past two, at home where the offense has fallen on its face, are inexplicable, so I expect Jerome Tang to have this team ready to put it on Mississippi Valley State here. That’s what everyone does, as the Delta Devils are still the easiest get in all of college basketball.
MVSU is currently second-worst in the country for adjusted defensive efficiency, and they always let you get whatever you want on offense. They’ve played four teams in the top-115 of KenPom this season, allowing triple digits three times with 105.5 points on average. The lone power conference team they faced dropped 120 on them, so K-State should be able to cross the 100-point threshold as well. The Wildcats are playing very fast this season and should get all the run-outs they want, piling up easy points to hit this team over.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 34-24 (+5.17 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
