Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Miami Heat Team Total Under 117.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:00 PM CT on Prime Video
It’s NBA Cup time, and that means more of a playoff basketball feel to these games as they’re all win-or-go-home. I think that ramps up defensive intensity on its own, and is why the total in this game cratered last night before bouncing back up.
Additionally, we’re getting a very good defensive squad with Orlando here, and I think the Magic can hold this Heat team down. After early season struggles defensively, the Magic have turned things around and now are up to 6th in the league for defensive efficiency. Those early defensive lapses are highlighted by the season opener when they combined with the Heat for 246 points, but after figuring things out on that end of the floor, last week these teams only combined for 211 points.
I think that’s more the state of both squads, as Miami’s red-hot offense has cooled off considerably, and hasn’t looked great on the road recently. With elevated stakes for tonight’s game, I think we see more of a defensive battle, and the better defensive team should hold down a poorly trending offense.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Michigan Team Total Over 84.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 5:30 PM CT on FS1
What do the Wolverines need to do to get ranked #1 in the AP Poll? Apparently absolutely dismantling 4 straight opponents, and very good ones at that, can’t get them to leapfrog red hot Arizona, but maybe that gives Michigan extra motivation tonight. The Wolverines haven’t gone under this team total in almost a month, their only true road game so far this season which is still their only time being held below 85 points.
The other 7 games have been an offensive showcase, averaging 98.6 PPG against the country’s 6th-toughest non-conference schedule. This offense is rolling, with the past 3 games all clearing triple digits, and it’s been thanks to 44% shooting from downtown. I don’t see any letup in their being wet from deep, as Villanova comes into this game with the second-worst three point percentage defense in the entire country. If Michigan is out to keep making statements, this one could get away from Nova in a hurry and I think the Wolverines at least clear this total if not completely run another team out of the building.
NCAA Basketball (0.75 Unit) Florida/UConn Under 148.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN
There’s been some recent over money hitting this game to drive the total up, but I simply disagree and I’m taking the opportunity to go under a better number. The metrics sites are projecting this one in the 145-ish range, so it might be tight, and I can understand the sentiment of betting the over with two top-25 offenses getting together.
But I’m looking at this far differently, and think it might be a dead under with how UConn has been playing in these kinds of games. Since allowing 84 points to AJ Dybantsa and BYU last month, UConn has put the clamps down defensively in every game, but particularly in their meetings with other top programs. The Huskies have held Arizona, Kansas, and Illinois to 62.7 PPG, which is no small feat, and I think they match up well with Florida here.
The Gators simply can’t shoot from deep, sitting 342nd in three-point percentage, and UConn has an elite perimeter defense. But Florida’s defensive strength is inside, where UConn likes to operate, so I see defensive advantages for both squads. If the Huskies control tempo at their very slow pace, and shooting is difficult in the neutral site at MSG, then I don’t see a path to this many points tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 35-28 (+3.64 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
