Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is known for his quantitative, mathematical, and analytical approach to decision-making.
It’s a different philosophy than Minnesota’s previous regime relied on for big decisions. Heck, it’s different from how most NFL teams have made decisions for decades. But Adofo-Mensah has taken note of what other successful teams have done, specifically with the quarterback position, and applied it to the Vikings.
Adofo-Mensah used this mathematical approach to retool the Vikings roster. He spent his first two seasons shedding dead-weight contracts of aging free agents such as Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Eric Kendricks.
In the 2024 offseason, Minnesota used the available cap space gained from shedding those contracts to sign a ton of key contributors who perfectly fit defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ defense. Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, and Jonathan Greenard put together their best seasons to date with the Vikings in 2024.
Meanwhile, the Vikings fine-tuned an already talented offensive unit by adding veteran running back Aaron Jones. When it was time for the draft, pundits everywhere picked Minnesota as the best landing spot for a franchise quarterback. After all, in addition to Adofo-Mensah constructing his team to benefit a young franchise quarterback, Minnesota’s roster was already equipped with an elite group of playmakers in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. And of course there’s head coach Kevin O’Connell, who has quickly branded himself as one of the elite QB gurus.
The Vikings selected J.J. McCarthy to lead them to the elusive promised land, the final piece to the puzzle in Adofo-Mensah’s Ravensburger.
Teams have recently used something like Adofo-Mensah’s master plan to earn a Super Bowl berth and, in many cases, win a championship. These organizations have allocated a good chunk of resources to developing a solid roster with star players at important positions. The secret ingredient is the quarterback — young, talented, and, most importantly, still on his rookie contract.
It’s been right in front of our faces for over a decade.
The San Francisco 49ers in 2023, the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022, and the Cincinnati Bengals in 2021. The Kansas City Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes through the 2021 season. The Los Angeles Rams in 2018. Philadelphia again in 2017. The list goes on and on. It’s like a cheat code for enhancing your odds of winning a title. That isn’t even to mention the many teams that made the playoffs multiple times with a quarterback on a rookie contract, like the Buffalo Bills with Josh Allen and the Baltimore Ravens with Lamar Jackson.
Sure, these teams hit on their quarterback selection, and that’s where most of the attention goes when the Super Bowl run happens. But these teams laid a foundation when they built up the roster elsewhere in preparation for their franchise quarterback to be successful.
That brings us to the present-day Vikings and the Sam Darnold conundrum. He was signed to a one-year, $10 million deal to be nothing more than a bridge to the future, assisting Minnesota in their transition to McCarthy as the franchise quarterback. But, of course, McCarthy suffered a meniscus injury in the preseason, and Darnold assumed the starting role.
We know how the story goes from there. Darnold shatters expectations and leads Minnesota to a 14-3 regular season record. In the process, Darnold submitted his application for the role of Vikings franchise quarterback.
It’s easy to fall prey to recency bias, especially with Darnold lighting up the Green Bay Packers twice en route to victory. The talented veteran has earned himself a massive contract with his career season. But even after winning 14 games with him, it would be unwise for Adofo-Mensah to be the general manager that signs Darnold to the big contract.
The Vikings spent the last six seasons handicapped by Cousins’ large cap hits, which made it difficult to build a complete roster. Ultimately, Minnesota won just one playoff game during Cousins’ tenure. A further look around the league tells a similar story about teams who pay their quarterbacks a massive contract. Atlanta just backed up the brink truck for Cousins and wound up replacing him with their rookie quarterback before the end of the season.
Unless your team’s quarterback is truly elite, like a Mahomes, Allen, or Jackson, there’s not much sense in paying that huge contract.
Minnesota has positioned itself perfectly for a Super Bowl window to open in the next few years. Adofo-Mensah has assembled a superb roster on both sides of the ball, led by the reigning NFL Coach of the Year. Plus, they’re in a fabulous salary cap position for the foreseeable future.
Signing Darnold to that large deal would waste all of Adofo-Mensah’s work in the last couple of years building the foundation of a championship team. It would immediately place a ton of pressure on Darnold, the franchise quarterback who received a large chunk of the cap, and on Adofo-Mensah to be absolutely perfect on roster decisions in the next couple of years.
McCarthy is the plan. Veering from that plan would be a form of self-sabotage that would narrow — or potentially outright close — Minnesota’s Super Bowl window.
There are too many examples of this tactic working for other teams, and the Vikings are replicating it themselves. It’s a mathematical approach to team-building that Adofo-Mensah has recognized gives them the best shot.
