Minnesota Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah talks a lot about how their front office always looks at different models, scenarios, and possible permutations for how free agency or the draft might come together. This may seem like a cliché — GM-speak, if you will — but it’s likely an essential way of doing business when there are as many variables in play for this Vikings team. The multiverse of different outcomes for Minnesota’s offseason feels nearly infinite.
The sheer amount of uncertainty combined with the ample cap space means this team has a lot of options in free agency. Conversely, their limited draft capital means they must carefully address their needs headed into draft night, because they simply don’t have the ammo. The Vikings must be smart in how they spend money this free-agency period. Still, that doesn’t mean they can’t afford to get splashy once or twice. They also can’t count on the draft to fill out their entire roster but may be able to target a specific need or two heading into draft night.
I aimed to take the two different markets and compare and contrast them. Where is there surplus depth the Vikings can take advantage of? Where is a scarcity of playmakers that may demand a more dedicated monetary or draft asset commitment to filling?
Minnesota will likely try to, at the very least, give each position group on the team the “landlord special” and cover their roster holes with some paper and spray paint. But they could try snagging a real talent upgrade afterward if the draft market works in their favor.
So, let’s look at the positions of need for the Vikings. I’d narrow down Minnesota’s top five needs: cornerback, interior defensive lineman, safety, interior offensive lineman, and running back. We can quibble about the priority among those needs, but I’d say those are the primary positions Minnesota must address.
I looked at PFF’s Top-100 Free-Agent Rankings and used that as a general barometer for how the industry views this free-agency class. I then used NFLMockDraftDatabase‘s Consensus Big Board, which uses 108 different big boards from across the industry and compiles them into their own ranking.
As we stand in late February, the combine hasn’t yet shaken up the system. However, we can once again get a general picture of the broad strokes of the class. For the purposes of this exercise, I also only looked at the top 100 prospects. As with most classes, it’s hard to project a starter for a position of need being picked outside the top 100.
So, let’s talk about how those free-agency numbers shake out. A few things immediately stand out to me.
Firstly, there’s a pretty even split among Minnesota’s positions of need across the top 100, outside of running back. (Note: PFF may be adjusting for positional value. They typically rank running backs low on the list.) However, there are some clear differences in top-of-the-market talent, where positions like cornerback and offensive guard had most of their players in the top 50. Cornerback seems rife with high-end talent. PFF has seven elite corners ranked in the top 35.
That doesn’t necessarily mean there’s an overabundance at those positions, though. Many teams need cornerbacks, and even more teams need help on the offensive line. There’s a reason these positions are so heavily sought after.
However, what we might be able to derive from this is that you should familiarize yourself with the variety of high-end options rather than getting attached to a singular name at guard or corner. Guards like Trey Smith, Will Fries, Teven Jenkins, Kevin Zeitler, or James Daniels could all be viable names for Minnesota if they decide to spend big at the top on the OL. The same could be said at cornerback.
It’s also worth noting that the bottom of the top-100 free agents quickly gets pretty bleak. Stephon Gilmore comes in at 67 on PFF’s rankings. Either that’s a misevaluation on Gilmore, or there are 33 guys in the top 100 worse than a 34-year-old corner who couldn’t play man coverage all year.
That doesn’t get me thrilled for the bottom third of this list.
It seems like there’s a big argument to be made for attacking needs like cornerback, guard, and safety with premier free-agent talent because the market appears to have strong options at the top, followed by a swift decline at the bottom. Meanwhile, some of the positions look different in the NFL Draft media world. And they tell an interesting story of what positions may be worth waiting on.
I’ll start by saying the draft is always full of unpredictable, high-variance assets. Waiting to fill any glaring need on draft night is like asking your stoner friend from college to pick you up from the airport: It’s cheap, and it’s great if it works out, but you might be disappointed. That said, there are some interesting conclusions from the top 100 of this class.
Firstly, safeties as a draft asset may have a depreciated value due to their position, but the sheer number of quality safeties in this draft is pretty bleak. If you’re not coming away with Georgia’s Malaki Starks or South Carolina’s Nick Emmanwori, you’re probably not getting a starter. Those guys might be available at the bottom of Round 1, but all it takes is a short run on safeties, and you could be left high and dry at a pretty important position in Brian Flores‘ defense.
It makes re-signing Cam Bynum all the more enticing. It also appears to be a solid class for developing a project CB2. There’s not a surplus of elite corners in this class, but guys like Azareye’h Thomas or Benjamin Morrison are top-50 players who could make an excellent CB2 sidekick.
However, this class gets especially interesting in the trenches. There could be some promising opportunities for the Vikings on the offensive and defensive interiors.
The interior defensive line class is deep and talented, with nine guys ranked from 50 to 100. There likely could be a good player who slides to the Vikings with their third-round compensatory pick at that position. It feels like something that might end up a draft day priority, especially considering some of the talent scarcity at the position in free agency.
Guard is also a bit more scarce in the top 100 of this draft class, highlighting an overall issue with insufficient quality offensive lineman making their way to the league. The sheer lack of numbers might make you a bit nervous walking into draft night with a glaring hole on the offensive interior. However, the Vikings might get good value on those players.
All four interior O-linemen ranked in the top 50 of this class are rated between 21 and 45. Whether they sit pretty at 23 or get creative with a trade back, the Vikings might be in the sweet spot for iOL value. That tells me that if Adofo-Mensah misses out on the high-end guards in free agency, he may be able to sign a passable veteran to get by with in hopes of solving this issue on draft night.
Finally, I’d add that, in terms of running backs, the market seems pretty clear that it’s Aaron Jones or bust in free agency. Then, they must try to solidify their depth at the position in the draft. Outside of Jones, the free-agent class simply doesn’t move the needle. I’d be surprised to see the Vikings select one of the high-end prospects in this class unless they spend on their other needs in free agency, but there’s lots of depth to this class, even outside the top 100.
My main takeaway is that there are options, and weighing how they balance them in the two markets will tell the story of the 2025 Vikings. It’s a crucial year with the impending debut of your QB of the future, along with elevated expectations after a successful 2024. But as we prepare for the dominoes to start falling with the NFL combine and the legal tampering period fast approaching, fans will need to prepare and be as flexible as Kwesi hopefully will be.
