The mantra for the 2024 Minnesota Vikings may as well have been “Chicks Dig the Deep Ball.”
Kevin O’Connell played to Sam Darnold‘s strengths, which included a level of arm strength that everyone else had forgotten he possessed. Darnold may have put up Kirk Cousins-esque numbers, but he did it by being the Anti-Cousins. Rather than a meticulous, cautious ball-mover, Darnold got to sling it downfield, and did it more than anyone in the NFL.
The Vikings spent a significant part of the offseason ensuring that they could rein in their high-octane offense from 2024. Minnesota didn’t have a competitive run game last year, but that should change considerably with Jordan Mason, Will Fries, and rookie Donovan Jackson in the fold. O’Connell has the luxury to play McCarthy in a similar role to the one John Harbaugh used him during their time at Michigan.
But that surely isn’t the end goal. The Vikings didn’t trade up to get McCarthy to make him a game-manager. A competitive team doesn’t game-manage when Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson are all running downfield.
Darnold had the arm to execute that deep-strike game plan, and the Vikings are optimistic that McCarthy does as well. Jefferson vouched for it in June, insisting, “He’s definitely got an arm. That’s for sure.”
McCarthy addressed the skepticism around his arm strength, theorizing that doubts could come from “My frame. They don’t see a 6’5”, 240 lb. guy, so how can you throw at 61 miles an hour at the combine?”
For the record, McCarthy is listed at 6’3”, 219 lbs. That’s a dead ringer for Darnold’s 6’3”, 225 lb. frame.
Even if McCarthy can sling it just like Sam, though, it’s going to be important to treat him with some sort of kid gloves. Lining up in two training camps against Brian Flores’ tricky defense will help with his education, but nothing compares to facing an NFL unit at game speed. The Vikings must set him up for early success to build up his confidence for the games with the highest stakes.
We can expect to see an offense that leans much more heavily on the run game to start the season, and perhaps even a pivot to shorter-to-intermediate throws. But for how long? When should we expect to see some of that gun-slinging magic we saw from Darnold’s explosive offense next year?
The first instinct might be to follow the plan KOC used with Darnold last season. While Darnold had success — and even a 97-yard deep strike to Jefferson in Week 2 against the San Francisco 49ers — O’Connell didn’t have to rely on Darnold airing it out early in the year. Over the first three weeks, Darnold only threw 26 times per game, averaging 7.1 yards in the air on his pass attempts.
Once Darnold built that confidence against elite defenses like the Niners and Houston Texans, KOC started letting Darnold rip it. The quarterback heaved the ball an average of 33 times for the remainder of the season, averaging 1.5 more air yards per attempt in a downfield-oriented attack.
In some ways, McCarthy is much better suited to build that early confidence. His first game will be on the road at Soldier Field — never an easy ask for a Vikings QB — but the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2 and Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 represent two teams particularly vulnerable to the pass. It looks like an excellent opportunity to build up their new starter, then let him start going to town.
That is, until you look further down the schedule. The Vikings are going to run smack-dab into a run of elite defenses in the Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 4), Philadelphia Eagles (Week 7), Detroit Lions (Week 9), and Baltimore Ravens (Week 10). When the Los Angeles Chargers (Week 8) and Myles Garrett‘s Cleveland Browns (Week 5) are the “easy” teams on the slate, that’s downright terrifying. McCarthy might be able to build some early confidence, but it’s going to be easy to squander all of that when going against the best defenses in the NFL.
Still, the kid gloves are going to have to come off eventually. For one, if the Vikings have Super Bowl aspirations, they’re not going to be able to hide their quarterbacks’ inexperience against defenses for the entire season. There’s also a great chance Minnesota will need to rely on McCarthy’s arm to win games from Weeks 4 to 10, regardless. The Ravens had the best run defense last season, while Detroit ranked fifth, Pittsburgh sixth, and the Eagles tenth. The Vikings might have improved their rushing attack, but they won’t look dominant against those teams.
Week 7 was the perfect spot for McCarthy to look more like peak Darnold. The Eagles were the No. 1 pass defense in 2024, which is a tall task, but it’ll be at home. More importantly, however, KOC will have two whole weeks to coach him up for the matchup. McCarthy will already have had a taste of elite defenses after seeing the Steelers three weeks prior, then facing Garrett in Week 5. It’ll take O’Connell all of his schematic powers to engineer good spots for McCarthy to thrive. Still, a strong showing against the Eagles could springboard his not-quite-a-rookie to greater success for the rest of the season.
That’s crucial, because things won’t let up after Week 10. The Green Bay Packers (Weeks 12 and 18) and their strong defense will still get two cracks at McCarthy, with the Lions (Week 17) getting another look. Road-tripping to the Seattle Seahawks (Week 13) has also been nightmare fuel for Vikings QBs not named “Darnold.” The bye week appears to be the deadline to get McCarthy up and running, because once it ends, the QB is getting thrown into the fire. Ready or not, he’ll have to hold up and have full command of the offense if Minnesota wants to get some midseason wins.
