When the Minnesota Twins traded Chris Paddack and Randy Dobnak to the Detroit Tigers on Tuesday afternoon, Derek Falvey might as well have walked out of his office and shot a starter’s pistol into the sky. The Twins were officially open for business, creating an interesting three days leading up to Thursday’s trade deadline.
Many fans could see this coming. The Twins shook off a rough April to win 13 straight games in May but regressed to their early-season form. With a 22-33 record since June 1 and a slew of pending free agents, it always made sense for the team to sell off assets, even sitting five games back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League entering Wednesday’s game with the Boston Red Sox.
But fans don’t want to lament over what has become a lost season. They want to know what’s next. The Twins can’t just trade people just to trade them, and there has to be a primary objective that started with Monday’s trade with the Tigers.
Like a Falvey press conference, the answers are complicated. But his past deadline moves are a bit of a tell.
The Twins have been obvious sellers at the deadline twice since Falvey arrived in Minnesota in 2017. The Twins sold in 2018, when they had a 48-56 record with two days remaining until the deadline. They also traded away players in 2021, when they were 43-60 on July 29.
While the records differ, the objective remained the same.
It began when the Twins made some shrewd moves in 2018.
The Twins were hoping to contend after a surprise playoff appearance in 2017. However, it never materialized due to a series of failed free agent signings. Lance Lynn was supposed to solidify Minnesota’s rotation, but a late signing and limited Spring Training caused him to go 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA in 20 starts. The Twins jumped ship and sent him to the New York Yankees. However, they only received first baseman Tyler Austin and prospect Luis Rijo in return.
Minnesota also had its share of assets that could help a team down the stretch run, including reliever Ryan Pressly. A former Rule 5 pick, the Twins tried to get ahead of the curve before they had to pay him and flipped him to the Houston Astros for Jorge Alcala and Gilberto Celestino. Alcala and Celestino played minor roles on the Twins over the next few seasons as a reliever and a reserve outfielder.
Twins fans mostly accepted those deals, even though Lynn found his footing in the following season and Pressly would become one of baseball’s best relievers with the Astros. However, they made deals that were more difficult to digest later in the deadline, when they moved on from Eduardo Escobar and Brian Dozier.
Escobar was a serviceable utility player who became an All-Star after the Twins traded him to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Dozier was a fan-favorite who was seemingly on the trade block after slugging 76 home runs in the 2016 and 2017 seasons. Neither were easy to send away, but they brought returns that included Jhoan Duran, Devin Smeltzer, and Luke Raley, who eventually reached the big leagues.
Raley never played a game for the Twins. Still, the sale brought back six players who would eventually reach the majors, which set the tone for Minnesota to win the division in 2019 and 2020. When the Twins started the 2021 season, it had the same feeling as the 2018 squad. However, Falvey noted there was a difference between selling off and finding a way to “retool” the roster.
“Our view of this is sustainability,” Falvey said in 2021. “We know what this year has been. I’ve talked about that at length. It has not been what we wanted, but we still feel…we have a lot of talent in that clubhouse coming back in ‘22 and ‘23 and beyond. So how do you build a sustainable group? You’ve got to retool it sometimes.”
Some of the heavy lifting would come in the following offseason when Minnesota traded Josh Donaldson to the New York Yankees and filled that salary slot with Carlos Correa. However, the Twins formed a significant part of their current core through the trades they made in 2021.
The Twins had a top-tier starter in José Berríos, but it became increasingly clear he wasn’t interested in re-signing with the team when he was slated to become a free agent in 2023. Rather than wait it out, Falvey hit the market, acquiring a pair of top 100 prospects in pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson and utilityman Austin Martin.
Neither player has reached the lofty expectations of their top 100 status. But Woods Richardson has established himself as a back-end starter, while Martin is a reserve outfielder in the same way Celestino was a couple of years ago.
The Twins also traded away Hansel Robles and J.A. Happ for marginal returns, but the home run came when they traded Nelson Cruz to the Tampa Bay Rays. Minnesota received two pitching prospects in the deal. While Drew Strotman never turned out, the Twins landed Joe Ryan, a front-end starter.
Ryan is the prospect that baseball fans dream of when their team sells at the deadline. A true top-of-the-rotation starter and 2025 All-Star, it’s the type of deal fans also don’t want to be on the wrong end of, like when the Houston Astros traded Jeff Bagwell to the Boston Red Sox or the Los Angeles Dodgers traded Yordan Alvarez to Houston and Oneil Cruz to the Pittsburgh Pirates.
But those deals only come around every once in a while. The real success of the deadline is to measure how many major league contributors they can find, which is what is plaguing the team.
Like the 2018 and 2021 teams, the Twins have a lot of expendable parts. Paddack was the first to go, but Harrison Bader, Willi Castro, and Danny Coulombe could be right behind them. While the temptation could be there to go a step further and trade Duran, Ryan, and Griffin Jax, the “retooling” approach that Falvey laid out in 2021 may be the way to go.
Even if things aren’t optimistic now, the Twins will still have plenty of talent next year. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa aren’t going anywhere, and Royce Lewis has looked more comfortable the further he’s been removed from a severe hamstring injury during spring training.
Duran, Jax, and Ryan can all be pillars of Minnesota’s pitching staff, and a healthy Pablo López could make a massive difference. Mix in a top prospect like Luke Keaschall, Walker Jenkins, or even Kaelen Culpepper, and it could be a modest player that could push the Twins back to contention.
It’s not the mega-haul that Twins fans may be hoping to receive. But it’s a series of steady moves that Falvey has made in the past and could replicate in the next few days.
