The 2026 MLB Draft order is set, and the Minnesota Twins’ draft lottery odds for the No. 1 overall pick fell a bit short on Tuesday. The Twins had the second-best odds to secure the first pick in the 2026 MLB Draft at 22.2%, but ended up moving back from their original slot to pick third overall.
The good news was that they didn’t fall far from their original position. The Twins are locked in to pick third overall in the 2026 MLB Draft. The Tampa Bay Rays moved ahead of the Twins to take the No. 2 spot, moving up from their original spot at No. 7. The Chicago White Sox entered the night with the best shot at the No. 1 pick at 27.73%, and they retained it.
It’s only the fifth time since 2000 the Twins will have a top-three pick within the MLB Draft, with the previous four being Royce Lewis (first overall in 2017), Byron Buxton (second overall in 2012), Joe Mauer (first overall in 2001), and Adam Johnson (second overall in 2000).
In their franchise history, the Twins have only had the third overall pick twice since the MLB Draft’s inception in 1965. Those came in 1987 and 1991, respectively, with the Twins taking RHP Willie Banks in ‘87, and the late first baseman David McCarty in ‘91. Banks only pitched with the Twins for the first three of his nine seasons in the majors, while McCarty played in 167 games over two and a half seasons.
Third overall is typically a valuable pick in the MLB Draft: teams have drafted a bust with that pick recently.
The Chicago Cubs took Josh Vitters in 2007 (-1.3 career bWAR).
The Colorado Rockies took Brendan Rodgers in 2015 (5.9 career bWAR).
And the San Diego Padres took Donovan Tate in 2009, but he never reached the majors.
Still, teams have chosen All-Stars and a future Hall of Famer picked third overall recently:
- Evan Longoria in 2006 (58.9 career bWAR).
- Carlos Rodon in 2014 (22.3 career bWAR).
- And Manny Machado in 2010 (61.7 career bWAR).
Only two Hall of Famers have been selected third overall, both by the Milwaukee Brewers: Robin Yount in 1973, and St. Paul native Paul Molitor in 1977.
The third-overall picks from the last three drafts have yet to make their MLB debuts. Still, MLB Pipeline had all three of them on their top 100 list:
- Charlie Condon (3rd overall in 2024) is the lowest at 61st.
- The Seattle Mariners took Kade Anderson, a left-handed pitcher out of LSU, and he’s MLB Pipeline’s 23rd-best prospect.
- Max Clark is the only prep player selected ahead of Walker Jenkins in 2023, and the Detroit Tigers outfielder is the ninth-best prospect in baseball per Pipeline.
MLB Draft history shows that there are varying outcomes for players drafted in this spot. Still, who could the Twins expect to land in that spot in 2026? It’s way too early to tell. There’s still a full season of collegiate and prep baseball to be played out by all eligible players, which makes all early rankings published right now hard to gauge on who the top two picks could be ahead of the Twins.
The current consensus No. 1 prospect is UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, the son of longtime MLB scout Dan Cholowsky. He stands at 6’2”, 195 lbs, and averages a 60-65 scouting grade across all his tools, aside from running, which sits at 45. If he produces his best season ever as a junior at UCLA this spring, Cholowsky is probably the No. 1 consensus prospect, and certainly in the top three.
MLB Pipeline’s third-best prospect in the upcoming draft class is University of Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron. He has a 60 grade in everything except his hit tool, which sits at 50. In three of the past four drafts, the Twins have taken a college shortstop: Marek Houston this year, Kaelen Culpepper in 2024, and Brooks Lee in 2022.
It’s possible the Twins could go this route again in 2026. Still, if a player with higher upside in one of their other go-to player models (big college right-handed pitchers, or left-handed hitting college outfielder) is available, they may go with that instead.
While the second or first overall pick in the 2026 MLB Draft would have been a more rewarding outcome to see for the Twins, going down one spot is far from their worst outcome. They could have fallen to eight. There will be plenty of time for the draft class to shake out in rankings, but Twins fans can feel confident they will draft a player with franchise cornerstone potential in 2026.
