Locks
NBA (1 Unit) Denver Nuggets -6.5 First Half @ Utah Jazz (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 8:00 PM CT on Altitude
This is such an obvious spot for Denver it’s a little scary. The Wolves winning yesterday put Denver in a spot standings-wise where they have to push in games like this, and I think they will. It’s simply too easy for a team like them to smash this ragtag collection of G-Leaguers that Utah is trotting out on a nightly basis. The Jazz are so bad right now that in their doubleheader with New Orleans over the weekend, they trailed at halftime by 17 and 25 points. They did keep the final result respectable though, so I’ll just back the Nuggets on this early number and expect them to bounce back with a vengeance tonight.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Duke/NC State Over 147.5 (-110; Odds via Fanduel): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN
Duke has been reminding everyone who runs the ACC since their last-second loss at UNC a few weeks ago. It’s very likely that continues tonight, but I’m not going to ask them to win by double digits in a tough road game. It has the potential to be a tough game for them because of how NC State plays, with an up-tempo style and willingness to launch from deep at any time.
If there has been a weakness to Duke’s defense that is now leading the country in adjusted efficiency, it’s three-point shooting. So if the Wolfpack can get some of those to drop tonight they’ll be able to put up a fight, and at least contribute to this total in a massive game for their thin tournament hopes. But this undersized NC State team is in big trouble down low against Duke’s enormous frontcourt, and will give up a lot of easy buckets. If those factors play out together though, this total is just a little too low and I think they can find their way over.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Idaho @ Eastern Washington -3 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I love this Eastern Washington story, and so does the market as their numbers keep getting steamed up, but they’re still very much worth backing at this point. The Eagles have turned one of the more disappointing seasons in the country into a potential late-season run for the ages, and this game matters a lot for them. There’s a very good chance they can nab the 2-seed in the Big Sky, but they need this game first and I think they get it.
Idaho coming to town doesn’t scare me as E-Wash has already taken down all the best teams in the Big Sky during this 8-game winning streak that has gone along with a 9-0 ATS run. This team was never bad, they just had some bad luck in close games, but they’ve flipped that now into some impressive blowout wins to make up for lost time. Idaho is very reliant on jacking up three’s, but haven’t been connecting very well on the road and have struggled against the better teams in the conference. That’s what E-Wash is right now, and I think they make another statement here.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Eastern Washington Team Total Over 77.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
One of those close, bad-luck losses the Eagles took was to Idaho in their first conference game of the year, so payback will be on their mind. They managed 81 points on the road in that game so they know how to attack this Vandals defense that’s vulnerable to the three and fairly foul-prone. The Eagles have been good at knocking down triples and converting at the charity stripe all season, and have really been scoring well at home with 85.5 PPG in their 4 home games during this run, so another big output should be coming here.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 13-16 (-0.92 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
