Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Hornets -7.5 First Half (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
The Hornets just keep rolling in first halves, now sitting as a top-10 team in average first half margin this season. They’ve figured out their perfect lineup construction, and the starting lineup they’ve been going with lately is 18-2 straight up on the season. I think they keep rolling early in this one tonight, as Dallas comes in at 25th in average first half margin, and now the Mavs are one of the most banged-up teams in the league. Charlotte can hear the footsteps behind them of Milwaukee getting Giannis back and trying to catch them for the final play-in spot, so with urgency being high I think they get off to another hot start here.
NBA (0.5 Unit) LA Lakers Team Total Over 125.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:30 PM CT on Spectrum Sports Net
I would like to bet the full game over here since the Lakers are such a good over team at home. However, the Pelicans have been in LA for a couple of nights after playing the Clippers, and that LA flu has to be hitting at least to some degree. Plus, they might be without Zion Williamson tonight so their offense might not contribute enough.
So I’ll count on the Lakers to contribute their share, as they’ve done in consecutive games of 129 and 128 points. The Lakers seem to have heard the talk about how inefficient their offense had been with the Big 3 on the court together and taken it personally. If they’re still looking to make statements, then a New Orleans squad that’s 26th in defensive efficiency and can’t stop anything at the rim will allow LA to clear this big number.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Oklahoma St/UCF Over 168.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:00 PM CT on ESPN+
UCF squandered a massive opportunity over the weekend, and I would think that they’ll be looking to make up for lost time and damage to their bubble status. That means they need to put it on someone, and the perfect Big12 opponent is coming to town with Oklahoma State and their pitiful defense. The Cowboys just want to run and they could care less about the defensive end, so UCF will have every chance to put up plenty of points.
The Knights actually boast a top-30 offense in the country, and I think they can name their score here, but the sheer number of possessions created by both teams playing very up-tempo will help the Cowboys to contribute as well. It’s a pace-based handicap here with the added element of UCF keeping the pedal down all game, so even this high number probably isn’t high enough.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) BYU @ Cincinnati -2 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN2
This is just a case of two teams headed in opposite directions, which is sad for BYU and their high expectations this season. But without Richie Saunders it’s been tough, as the offense hasn’t been anywhere near the same and now the defense is struggling. They have to visit a desperate and hot Cincinnati team here with everything to play for, as the Bearcats are one of the more bubble-licious teams in the country. Cincy and their elite defense should be able to slow down BYU who has become very one-dimensional and predictable with AJ Dybantsa. I’ll back the home team headed in the right direction here at a short price.
NCAA Basketball (0.5 Unit) Nebraska/UCLA Under 143.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on FS1
This should be an absolute grind of a game, a slog that will make fans of offense happy they went to bed early. Both Nebraska and UCLA are top-15 nationally in forcing the longest possessions defensively, so they burn tons of time on that end of the floor. They also move pretty slowly themselves, with the Huskers 214th and the Bruins 318th in adjusted tempo.
Nebraska has been elite defensively all season, ranked 5th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and it’s a return to hard-nosed defense that has pulled them out of an early February slump. UCLA meanwhile should be in for a bounce back defensively after allowing far too many points to the Gophers on Saturday, and their defense at home has always been far better. While both teams have some shooters, I just don’t see enough pace in a game with massive implications for both sides, so defense should win out tonight.
Degenerates
No degenerates today.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 12-18 (–3.6 Units) – Recommend: Consider Fading
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
