Another successful week at the window last weekend. See the full results here.
But with a giant slate of big games in college football and Week 2 of the NFL on tap, there is no time to rest on our laurels. This week I think the college slate presents more value than the NFL and I’ll be looking to take advantage.
Here is what I like this weekend:
1. Appalachian St. +3.5 vs Miami FL
Wager: Risk $55 to Win $50
Analysis: This is what we call a bookmaker’s line. They are begging you to take the Hurricanes and everyone and their mother is taking the bait. I won’t be biting. Appalachian State proved they are stout defensively against Tennessee. Miami has been devastated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball and should have trouble slowing down the Mountaineers’ option rushing attack. Give me the home team with the points.
2. Mississippi +11 vs Alabama
Wager: Risk $55 to Win $50
Analysis: Alabama is probably the best team in the nation, but this is too many points. Alabama is starting a freshman quarterback who has not proven himself against elite competition. Mississippi had a great Florida State team on the ropes. Their defense was tough against the run and made Deondre Francois earn the victory. I don’t think Jalen Hurts is quite the player Francois is and he might struggle in this one. Alabama is great, but Mississippi getting 11 points AT HOME when they have the better quarterback is crazy.
3. Ohio State -1.5 at Oklahoma
Wager: Risk $55 to Win $50
Analysis: I am a well-documented Sooners hater this year. I don’t think they are physical enough up front on offense or defense and they have struggled to replace Sterling Shephard. I think Ohio State will run over Oklahoma, and as long as J.T. Barrett limits his mistakes the Buckeyes should roll.
I hate taking a road favorite, especially one the public is all over, but I’ve been targeting this game since the offseason and I think the Buckeyes are simply the better team.
4. BYU vs UCLA Under 49
Wager: Risk $55 to win $50
Analysis: BYU’s defense has been solid this year, and their offense underwhelming. The teams faced off last year in a 24-23 contest. UCLA has slowed down their offense this year and has a better defense. I expect a tightly contested game with a final score to the tune of 21-20. Let’s hope for no overtime.
5. 6-point Round Robin Teaser with Penn State -2.5, Notre Dame -2, and Texas -1.
Wager: Risk $100 to Win $120
Analysis: A round robin teaser plays every combination of the three teams. It is essentially three, two-team teasers and one three-team teasers. We could win one teaser or all four. Let’s hope for four.
I think Temple is down this year and won’t be able to contain Saquon Barkley. Barkley is a top-five explosive player in the nation, and Chris Godwin and DaeSean Hamilton are dangerous on the outside. I expect the Nittany Lions to score early and often.
Notre Dame is at home against a Michigan State team that might be pretty bad. Kizer is a top-three quarterback in all of college football right now and the Irish’s weak secondary shouldn’t be tested too much by a weak Spartan passing attack.
Texas is a team I liked before the season, and I see no reason they should lose to Cal. Cal’s run defense has been terrible this season and the Longhorns have a strong rushing attack. It’s a tough spot traveling west and playing late at night, but I think the Texas defense gets just enough stops to top the Golden Bears.
6. Miami +7 at New England
Wager: Risk $55 to Win $50
Analysis: Miami and New England both exceeded expectations in their Week 1 matchups, but I think the Patriots are ripe for some regression. Jimmy G played about as well as he could against Arizona, and the Dolphins defensive line should put him under pressure. The Miami offense should have more success against he Patriots defense than they did against Seattle. A touchdown seems like too much in this spot and I’ll ride the Phins until they let me down.
NFL Week 2 Super Contest Picks:
- Tennessee +6 at Detroit
- Cleveland +6.5 vs. Baltimore
- Miami +6.5 at New England
- Vikings +2.5 vs. Green Bay
- Philadelphia +3.5 at Chicago
