While most Americans will be roasting in the sun or floating on a boat this first weekend of July, Tom Thibodeau and Scott Layden will be confined to the glass walls of Mayo Clinic Square.
NBA free agency begins at midnight eastern on July 1 and while the words the Minnesota Timberwolves sign… seem unlikely to show up in any initial “Woj Bombs,” the Wolves chief-decision makers will be waiting to jump on an opportunity should it present itself.
“You evaluate all the free agents,” Thibodeau said Thursday afternoon of he and Layden’s process. “You put them into tiers of where you think they might fit and then also you analyze the teams and what may happen. And there’s also another category of potential players.”
Those “potential” opportunities will be determined on the fly. If LeBron James leaves Cleveland, maybe impactful guys the likes of Kyle Korver or J.R. Smith become available. If a Kawhi Leonard trade triggers a re-jiggering in San Antonio, Danny Green, Patty Mills or Pau Gasol could potentially be acquired on the cheap. And so on.
To stay poised for these opportunities, it is crucial that Thibodeau does everything in his power to keep his roster lean enough to adjust — no small task, given the Wolves financial reality.
Stay lean and staying poised requires some planning and some difficult questions being answered. Let’s take a look at (three of) those questions.
Will Derrick Rose be back? If so, how much will he cost?
Every time Thibodeau has been pressed about the potential of bringing back Rose for the 2018-19 season, he has been quick to assert the guard’s importance last season.
“We thought Derrick was a terrific addition for us,” Thibodeau said at his end-of-season press conference. “I thought he was playing very well for us.”
And on Thursday, when asked if Rose will be the first offseason decision made, Thibodeau said, “We like the way he fit in.”
Which is all to say, the worst kept secret of the summer — and the Wolves are good at secrets — has been the Wolves’ intention to bring back the former MVP. Rose is an unrestricted free agent that Thibs was quick to point “has options too.”
As it relates to Rose with the Wolves, the most pressing question is will Rose accept a minimum salary?
Thibodeau would not comment on contract specifics Thursday but it does stand to reason that the most likely contract Rose signs — if it is with the Wolves — will, in fact, be a minimum deal.
Rose signing for the minimum is crucial for the rest of the Wolves roster construction but, first, here’s my logic for why Rose can afford it.
Only nine teams are scheduled to have cap space this offseason. Of those teams, two of them — the Lakers and the Sixers — are very likely to devote much if not all of that space to a star or stars. Two more of those cap teams — the Jazz and the Pacers — are flush with non-guaranteed contracts that make them major players on the trade market.
This leaves only Chicago, Atlanta, Brooklyn, Dallas and Sacramento as the real cap teams.
There is almost no money to go around and that reality could leave free agents who received annual salaries upwards of $20 million a season ago — Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($18 million) and even J.J. Redick ($23 million), for example — finding their market depressed all the way down to most expensive salary cap exception (the mid-level — $8.6 million annually).
If this is the case, the free agents a class below KCP and Redick — like Rose — will be feeling the weight of an anvil on their market value. In a “normal” salary cap environment Rose, given his performance in Minnesota, would maybe be at that mid-level threshold himself but that anvil is likely to push him down multiple tiers this summer.
For generic purposes, here are the four exception tiers that free agents will be fending for:
- Tier 1: The Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception ($8.57 million)
- Tier 2: The Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception ($5.30 million)
- Tier 3: The Bi-Annual Exception ($3.36 million)
- Tier 4: The Minimum Salary Exception ($1.501 million)
Speculatively, it seems that Rose’s production, given market factors, would likely warrant somewhere around tier 3 pay ($3.36 million). For Thibodeau, who would be wise to keep the larger exception for a bigger fish, it is crucial that he convinces Rose to drop another tier.
And I think he can.
The veteran’s minimum is $1.5 million for next season and that is somewhere around a $2 million pay cut for Rose, given my market estimate. Fortunately, for the Wolves, there is a clause in the league’s collective bargaining agreement that boosts the minimum level of pay for veterans who have played in the league for 10-plus seasons — like Rose.
Ten-year vets, if signed to the vet minimum this summer, would receive $1.5 million from their team and then an $838,000 boost paid by the league. This would raise Rose’s salary to $2.38 million — lowering his pay cut to $1 million.
Would Rose, who has earned $118 million in salary over the course of his career, sacrifice a little pay to play for the coach most likely to help rehabilitate his career?
If you’re thinking, players don’t give up money or who knows if he still has any of that cash, that’s fair. But it is worth noting that Rose is still in the midst of a $190 million shoe contract that will pay him an $8.5 million retainer this season and an additional $6 million in (minimum) royalties just for this season.
Again, $1 million seems realistic.
Additionally, it is crucial that Rose takes the minimum because if he does not but still signs with the team, the Wolves would need to pay him a portion of the mid-level exception. And if they do that, they can kiss goodbye the dream of signing a player like Caldwell-Pope or Redick.
These are guys who will not sacrifice a penny beyond the $8.6 million line — if they can get it somewhere else.
“With some players, they may not have the deal that they initially wanted,” said Thibodeau when asked about the exception market for this summer. “(Minnesota) may be the best opportunity in terms of the playing and the winning and then that sets them up for the following year.”
Thibs has certainly considered the snagging Rose for the minimum and dolling out the exception elsewhere route.
But even that path has its twists and turns.
Who could the Wolves give the mid-level exception to? And will they use it?
If the Lakers swing and miss on the LeBron Dream and the Sixers are unable to pry Paul George away from the Thunder, then it is likely that they sign Caldwell-Pope and Redick to big, one-year paydays that serve as pseudo gift certificates, thereby rolling their cap space over to next summer.
Even if this happens and those two aren’t available, there will still be a glut of wings who fit the “shooter” or “defensively versatile” mold. And even a few who fit both.
Here’s a list of some unrestricted free agents likely to sign at or below the mid-level exception line:
- Tyreke Evans
- Avery Bradley
- Rudy Gay
- Wayne Ellington
- Will Barton
- Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Throw in some restricted free agents and the list (potentially) grows:
- Marcus Smart
- Rodney Hood
- Dante Exum
- Kyle Anderson
- Patrick McCaw
It stands to reason, in spite of the questions about playing time under Thibodeau and the general malaise that comes with the idea of playing in Minnesota, that, at least, one of these players would be willing to sign for that “Tier 1” exception salary — if Rose makes it all available by signing for the minimum.
But there are more foils to evade.
Signing one of those players to an $8.6 million deal would put the Wolves into the luxury tax. Not only will Glen Taylor likely not want to pay the tax for a team that isn’t ready to compete for a title — they are not a contender even in the rosiest scenarios — but Thibodeau and Layden likely won’t want to have the team in the tax due to the restrictions it will place on the team for future offseasons.
That is, when the Wolves may actually be a contender.
Additionally, Nemanja Bjelica is a restricted free agent. If he is brought back — even at an affordable salary — each of those dollars pushes the team further into the tax, decreasing the likelihood they use the entirety of the mid-level exception on anyone.
A possibility — call it a compromise — that the Wolves could make is going into the tax with the understanding that they could then duck the tax by making a mid-season trade. Teams are not officially above or below the tax line until their final end-of-season team salary total is calculated. Portland implemented this tactic last season by trading Noah Vonleh for nothing at the trade deadline.
In theory, Minnesota could sign a “tier 1” MLE guy and maybe even bring Bjelica back with the pre-determined agreement –between Taylor and Thibodeau/Layden — that they will dump a Gorgui Dieng or Andrew Wiggins salary before the February trade deadline. It’s tricky and a risk but it is possible.
Another option for freeing up space is trading one of Dieng (three years, $50 million) or Wiggins (five years, $146.5 million) now. Trading Dieng is almost impossible given the length and salary of his deal but Wiggins — with still untapped upside — could be a different story.
On Thursday, Thibodeau assured the media that the organization “loves Wiggins” and that they think he is “critical” but that they will “always talk to people” (other teams) about trades.
There were no questions about Dieng — that topic has become awkward.
Could Andrew Wiggins be traded?
Talking about trades and finding a partner are two very different things.
The notion of Wiggins being able to be traded for “positive value” in return seems silly given his $146.5 million deal and that financial anvil on the market but it is not impossible. At some point, elite talents — even theoretical ones — justify the massive financial risk.
The parallel to draw between Wiggins potentially being moved this offseason is the Blake Griffin trade to Detroit at last season’s trade deadline. Just six months after signing a five-year, $171 million deal, Griffin was flipped to Detroit for Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic, a first-round pick (that became Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and a future second-round pick.
It was a clear positive haul for an injury-riddled 29-year-old scheduled to earn $39 million when he is 32.
Could the Wolves get that sort of return? Probably not. But all it takes is one team — someone distressed enough to trade for a player who looks like a star if they squint their eyes hard enough.
The tougher question to answer: Who is that team?
The mythical trade partner for Wiggins has three Piston-ian qualities:
- Desperation
A franchise that needs to increase their win total immediately.
Detroit fit this mold because they had just opened a brand new stadium and had been on the treadmill of mediocrity — a consistent fringe playoff team — for years. The Pistons also had a Thibodeau-y thing going on with Stan Van Gundy in charge of the front office and the coaching. Desperation is almost impossible to evade in that setup, particularly towards the end of the decision-makers contract.
Current desperate teams: Sacramento, Dallas, Los Angeles (Clippers), Miami, New Orleans
- Financial Destitution
A franchise that has used all of its financial resources but still lacks elite talent.
Again, with fat contracts handed out to Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and (for some reason) Jon Leuer, the Pistons were stuck. Oddly enough, when a team is financially pinched, their only real avenue to adding more talent is to pay for it, not in assets but in dollars — as the Pistons did with Griffin.
Current financially destitute teams: Charlotte, Cleveland, Denver, Los Angeles (Clippers), Miami, New Orleans, New York, Orlando, Portland, Toronto, Washington
- Unattractive Market Draw
A franchise that not only is never signing a superstar free agent but a town that would never even get a meeting with said star.
Yeah, Van Gundy had it rough. Not only were the Pistons desperate to win and financially screwed, they played in Detroit. Even if they would have sprinkled Hinkie Dust on their books and magically carved out cap space, the Pistons weren’t convincing a star to play in Michigan.
Current unattractive market teams: Detroit (still), Indiana, Memphis, Orlando, Phoenix, Utah
Currently, there just is not a team as hungry for a potential star as Detroit was in the fall. No team clearly checks all three boxes. And when you couple that with the notion that general managers have seemingly become allergic to long-term deals, a Wiggins trade is just very unlikely.
But, again, all it takes is one*.
*Never rule out Sacramento to become more desperate than they should be. Had DeAndre Jordan opted-in to his player option, that made financial, fit and (some) winning sense — both ways. Atlanta has cap space, a ton of time to be patient and no real isolation threat. And New Orleans actually doesn’t have any wings.
With a Wiggins trade, like the Rose decision and the potential for a mid-level player, it is about staying lean enough to be open to a possible move if it presents itself. For Thibodeau and Layden, it is likely that leniency will be the plan as the calendar turns from June to July. Stay as lean as possible, with ears to the ground for any potential movement and you have a shot to make something happen.
There are far bigger NBA questions to be answered in this LeBr-offseason, but for the Wolves these questions are important and their answers will be crucial determinants of a franchise in a good but fragile state.
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