Sam Ekstrom takes his final look at the NFC playoff picture before the Vikings’ regular season finale.
CAN THE VIKINGS MOVE UP IN SEED?
Nope. That ship sailed when the Vikings lost to the Packers, locking them into the 6-seed. Even if Minnesota tied with Seattle in the Wild Card spots, the Seahawks would win the head-to-head tiebreaker.
WHO WILL THE VIKINGS PLAY IN THE FIRST ROUND?
It could be any number of teams at this point, but in all likelihood it comes down the Seattle Seahawks or the New Orleans Saints.
Both the Saints and Packers have road games against banged-up teams with nothing to play for. New Orleans travels to Carolina, Green Bay to Detroit. If those two games go as expected — both the Saints and Packers are double-digit favorites — then the Vikings’ await the result of Sunday night’s season finale between the Seahawks and 49ers. A Seahawks win gives them the NFC West and a 3-seed, matching them up with the Vikings. A San Francisco win gives them the 1-seed, sends Seattle to the Wild Card and pushes the Saints down to the 3-seed and a date with the Vikings. If by some chance the 49ers and Seahawks tie, then San Francisco would win the NFC West but fall to a 3-seed, giving them a Wild Card matchup with the Vikings.
But let’s say the Lions upset the Packers. Then Green Bay falls to the 3-seed and Sunday night’s result doesn’t matter. Minnesota heads to Lambeau.
What if it’s the Saints that slip up against the Panthers? Then the Vikings would have to wait for Sunday night’s result, where a 49ers win pairs them with the Saints, a Seahawks win creates and Seahawks-Vikings rematch, and an unlikely tie creates a 49ers matchup.
Got that?
“Obviously there’s three realistic places that we could go,” said tight end Kyle Rudolph, “and for us we lost control of that a long time ago. We know that we have to play three games on the road to get to where we want to be. When it all shakes out late Sunday night we’ll figure out where we’re going.”
WHO SHOULD THE VIKINGS WANT TO PLAY?
Taking any ties out of the equation, the Vikings have three possible opponents: the Saints, Seahawks and Packers. None are particularly attractive matchups, considering the Vikings are 0-2 against the Packers, 0-1 against the Seahawks and winless in three trips to New Orleans this decade.
“Our focus is this week,” said head coach Mike Zimmer, “but we’ve got some guys doing some work on the possibilities — you always do when you’re going into the playoffs and you don’t know who you’re playing — you always break down the three or four teams. You get everything ready for when it happens. Yeah, it’s a little bit more difficult when you don’t find out until Sunday night, and then again it could be a Saturday game. We’ll just do the best we can.”
As odd as it sounds, the Vikings may prefer a third matchup with the Packers.
New Orleans has averaged over 35 points per game in their last six and has only one home playoff loss in the last 25 years — last year’s NFC Championship Game, which ended in officiating controversy. Seattle is 6-0 against the Vikings with Russell Wilson as its quarterback, and if they’re facing the Vikings they will have just won a division-clinching game over the 49ers.
The Vikings might be best off banking on a 2004 repeat, where they lost to the Packers at home in Week 16 to suffer the season sweep, only to bounce back in the playoffs with a convincing win. A third meeting against Green Bay might favor the veteran head coach Zimmer against the first-year head coach Matt LaFleur, considering a third matchup in the same season often comes down to coaching adjustments.
