The term ‘Super Bowl or bust’ gets thrown around a lot in conversations about the NFL.
Without context, that phrase illustrates the idea that a team is going ‘all in’ on a Super Bowl and if the team doesn’t get it done, it’s time to start over. Clean house. Everyone must go.
In a vast majority of cases, ‘Super Bowl or bust’ doesn’t apply to an NFL team. Some teams are clearly in rebuild mode, trying to find the right pieces that can form a contender down the road. Other teams are contenders with a young roster that is poised for future success beyond the current season. And yet several other teams are on the brink of contender status and need just a couple more pieces to the puzzle.
With all of that said, the ‘Super Bowl or bust’ mantra may truly apply to the Minnesota Vikings in 2020.
Since Mike Zimmer took over in 2014, the Vikings have been one of the better teams in the NFC. They’ve made the playoffs three times and have not had a losing season since Zimmer’s first season. The ship has stayed afloat despite a series of quarterback changes and a plethora of off-field distractions.
Zimmer’s tenure has lasted longer than most head coaching tenures do in the NFL. He’s accomplished more with what he was presented than nearly anybody else would have. Heck, when he took over, his quarterbacks were Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder, and Minnesota’s defense was ranked dead last in the league the previous season. The starting point doesn’t get much lower than that.
It is extremely difficult to win in the NFL, and Zimmer wasn’t exactly dealt the best hand. And yet, Minnesota has been a force in the NFC nearly every season.
Despite all of this, it feels like the Zimmer era could be coming to an end after the 2020 season.
The job statuses of Zimmer and general manager Rick Spielman are closely tied with the success of the team — this is pretty standard for any franchise. But in this particular situation, they’ve been working together now as head coach and GM for six seasons to build a Super Bowl team. It’s rare for a team to finally get that ring after six seasons of the same regime. In most cases, that regime has already peaked.
It would appear that the Vikings have peaked. Many of the key players that made the Vikings defense so great have either declined or will no longer be on the roster in 2020 (or both). Everson Griffen, Xavier Rhodes and Anthony Harris appear to be on the way out. Linval Joseph could join them.
Meanwhile, quarterback Kirk Cousins just put together arguably his most efficient season as a starting quarterback, and the farthest the Vikings were able to go was the divisional round of the playoffs before getting smothered by San Francisco.
It’s not just that the Vikings may have peaked under Zimmer. The NFL is different now than it was when Zimmer was hired. A successful offense is clearly more important than a successful defense. Offensive-minded head coaches are becoming the standard. Zimmer’s old school philosophy focused on a running game and defense is not as effective as it once was.
Take a look at all the head coaches experiencing success the last few years. Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Sean Payton, Doug Pederson, Matt LaFleur. All of them are offense-oriented and have used their expertise to put their franchise quarterback in the best position to succeed.
The Vikings are trying to win a Super Bowl against the grain. They have a defensive head coach and a general manager that have been together longer than most. They’ve got an expensive quarterback that has not shown the big-game ability to lead a deep playoff run. And to top it off, the salary cap crunch is only going to remove some valuable players that were key in the 2019 playoff season.
Why go through all of the reasons why the Vikings can’t win a Super Bowl? Well, to say they can’t is probably unfair. Football is weird. Sports are weird. Anything can happen.
The Vikings don’t really have a way out of the current regime right now, especially given Cousins’ contract runs through the 2020 season. But the window to start over opens after the 2020 season.
The stars are aligning for 2020 to be played under ‘Super Bowl or bust’ status for the Vikings. It’s the last year of Cousins’ massive contract (for now) and it would provide an opportune time for ownership to clean house should the Vikings fall short of the playoffs, or even a deep playoff run, in 2020. Can they get it done? Of course. The roster is still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The offense has the firepower to be something special. Zimmer is still a darn good head coach. But will they get it done? Probably not. Winning a Super Bowl is hard! And as previously mentioned, this team has likely peaked.
Who knows, maybe ownership has been pleased with the stability Cousins has brought to the position and he will be extended this offseason. Perhaps the same will follow for Zimmer and Spielman. Maybe steady winning seasons, not necessarily with a Super Bowl, are more profitable than going full rebuild. That would render this entire article useless.
But if Cousins isn’t extended prior to the 2020 season, the Minnesota Vikings will be on the brink of starting from scratch in 2021. New quarterback. New head coach. New general manager. New philosophy. New everything.
Super Bowl or bust.
