Usually, Week 11 in the NFL is a time when divisional races tighten and the nail-biting begins. However, that hasn’t been the case in the NFC North this year. For the Green Bay Packers, this Week 11 signals an opportunity for them to all but assure themselves the division crown.
Outside of the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East, the Packers are the only division leader with more than a one-game lead. Their 8-2 record leaves plenty of space between themselves and the 4-5 Minnesota Vikings. On Sunday, they can put the final nail in the coffin when they head to Minneapolis.
Of course, a win over the Vikings wouldn’t clinch things officially for Green Bay, but it would move them to 9-2 and drop Minnesota to 4-6. The two teams will meet again on Jan. 2 at Lambeau Field. If Minnesota were to win that affair, they’d still need the Packers to lose three other games down the stretch. Green Bay’s remaining schedule features some dicey matchups, but they have home games against the Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns and a regular-season finale against the Detroit Lions. In other words, it’s hard to envision the Packers ending up with six losses if they beat the Vikings on Sunday.
It was supposed to be tighter, according to the oddsmakers, before the year began.
Even with the Aaron Rodgers fiasco in the offseason, the Packers remained the favorites to take the division throughout the summer. Most outlets had Green Bay at around (-125) with the Vikings behind them somewhere around (+240). Few foresaw Green Bay having an opportunity to waltz into Minneapolis in the middle of November with a chance to put the unofficial final touches on another division title.
Minnesota’s roller-coaster ride has played a significant role in the proceedings. Their victory last weekend against the Los Angeles Chargers was the first time since a Week 3 win over the Seattle Seahawks that Mike Zimmer’s squad showed competence in closing out a game. Almost every other matchup has been chaotic, regardless of the outcome. Whether it be a missed 37-yarder for Greg Joseph as time expired against the Arizona Cardinals or a booming 54-yarder for Joseph against the Detroit Lions to win as time expired, Minnesota has not made it easy on themselves. Some will cling to the notion that this team is better than their record indicates. Even if that’s true, it won’t matter a bit if Green Bay wins on Sunday.
Green Bay has flipped its narrative upside down this season. A team that has long relied on Aaron Rodgers and the offense to put up big points has seen its stellar defense carry the load. Matt LaFleur’s offense hasn’t scored more than 24 points in five weeks, yet Green Bay is 4-1 over that stretch. The lone loss, of course, came against the Kansas City Chiefs when Rodgers was out.
Joe Barry’s defense has held the opposition to 17 or less in six out of 10 games. Slowly but surely, the realization that this is a top-tier defense is creeping in. Many thought it might be a tease, just a flash of greatness on this side of the ball. In reality, it’s just a damn good defense that will look to tee off against Kirk Cousins on Sunday. And he’s a different type of quarterback than the other signal-callers they’ve faced lately.
In three consecutive weeks, Green Bay has gone up against Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson. The name of the game for those three is making plays off script, outside of the pocket, and with their legs. There is no mobility threat with Cousins, which will be one less thing they have to worry about.
It was around this exact time a year ago that the Packers helped add to an already massive divisional lead by knocking the Bears down another peg. A Nov. 29 thrashing of Chicago last year put Green Bay at 8-3 and dropped the second-place Bears to 5-6 on the year. With a three-game lead and the tiebreaker in hand at that time, it seemed to be a certainty that the North was Green Bay’s. They went on to win the division by five games.
Fast forward nearly a year later, and now the Vikings are the target. They’ll waddle into U.S. Bank Stadium with a sense of confidence after knocking off the Chargers. But even they have to have some reservations, deep down, about having any sort of team identity. On Sunday, Green Bay has a chance to walk out of Minneapolis with another NFC North title all but assured.
