It’s hard not to compare young players with established NBA veterans and former players to attempt to predict how their career may take shape and fantasize about our favorite players’ potential. Anthony Edwards’ explosive speed and ability to finish at the rim earned him some exciting comparisons in his rookie year. Edwards famously compared himself to Dwyane Wade, and many people noted the similarities, including Stephen A. Smith and Wade himself.
While Wade and Edwards have similar body types and top-tier athleticism, one significant difference in the two players’ shot preferences has been revealed over the last season and a half. Wade didn’t take many 3-point shots, averaging 1.8 attempts per game throughout his career. His highest average of 3-point attempts per game, 3.6, was in his final season before retirement while playing for the Miami Heat in 2018-19.
In contrast, Edwards wants 3-point shooting to be a large part of his game. He averaged 7.2 3-point shots per game in his rookie year and is attempting 8.7 3-point shots per game this season. Edwards attempted a total of 520 3-point shots in his rookie year, the second-most for any rookie in NBA history.
Only three other players have attempted at least 500 3-pointers in their rookie season: Donovan Mitchell with 550, Luka Doncic with 514, and Damian Lillard with 503. Below is a comparison of those four players’ average shot selection, shooting percentage, and other counting stats in their rookie season.
The frequency with which Edwards takes threes may seem a bit problematic given that he only made 32.9% of them. However, this comparison demonstrates that it is not abnormal for a high volume 3-point shooter to have a relatively low 3-point percentage in their rookie year. It also indicates that it is not uncommon for a high-volume shooter to take nearly as many threes as twos in the modern NBA. The next table shows Edwards’ second season averages as of Dec. 7, 2021, compared to the same three players’ second seasons.
It is encouraging to see that Ant’s 3-point percentage has gone up in his second year even though he is attempting more of them. It is also encouraging that Ant is mostly keeping pace with the superstars on this chart in terms of his sophomore development.
Everyone would love to see Ant continue to develop his 3-point shot to Lillard-like levels of efficiency, but you don’t need to shoot 40% from 3 to be an effective player who can carry his team to the playoffs. The Dallas Mavericks went to the playoffs in Doncic’s second year even though he only shot 31.6% from three. Of course, as you can see above, Luka also had a monstrous number of rebounds and assists that helped his team win games, even though his 3-point shot was not efficient.
Edwards will also likely need to improve as a passer to become a bonafide superstar. Ant’s low assist numbers are partly because he is not the primary ball-handler on the Timberwolves, unlike Luka and Lillard were for their respective teams in their second year.
However, in the few minutes that we have seen Edwards take on the primary ball-handling role, it has seemed like he is still developing his ability to make the right decisions and passes at the correct times. That certainly does not mean he can’t develop that skill, only that it may take several years.
James Harden is an example of a player who developed into a great decision-maker throughout his career. Harden came into the league as a shooting guard with similar physical measurements to Ant (6’4” with a 6’10” wingspan). Harden only averaged 2.5 assists per game over his first three years in the league on the Oklahoma City Thunder. Why? Because he did not start many games and only averaged above 30 minutes per game in his third season.
Even after being traded to the Houston Rockets and earned a starting job, he averaged a solid but not wowing 5.8 assists per game. Harden steadily improved his numbers from there every year, but he did not truly make the leap to being a top-tier distributor until his eighth year in the league when he averaged a league-leading 11.2 assists per game. Since then, he has averaged over 10 assists per game in three other seasons and has not averaged less than 7.5 assists per game in a season.
Ant’s playmaking and distributing abilities still need development, but he is only 20 years old. Better decision-making often comes with more experience. Edwards has plenty of time and all the tools he needs to become a permanent lead ball-handler and a better playmaker in the future. If he does, watch out because his athleticism would likely carry him to even higher heights than Harden.
