With Kevin O’Connell set to be named the next head coach of the Minnesota Vikings, it is hard not to get excited about what their offense might look like next year. From watching the offense that the Los Angeles Rams have crafted, it is clear to see the creativity and innovation that both he and McVay have introduced into the offense that has benefitted the passing game.
The Rams ran 11 personnel (three wide receivers on the field) for 85% of their snaps this year, which ranked first in the NFL. Conversely, the Vikings used three wide receiver sets for just 47% of their snaps. Lining up in 11 personnel doesn’t always mean that the quarterback will be airing the ball out, but it looks like the Vikings’ offense will see an uptick in passing attempts next year.
With Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, and the emergence of K.J. Osborn, it looks like O’Connell landed in the perfect spot to implement his offense. But despite all of the talent that the Vikings’ talent at receiver, I wouldn’t be surprised to see O’Connell bring in another wideout or spend a top-100 pick on a receiver this offseason.
The Vikings have no shortage of needs on the defensive side of the ball that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will need to address soon. But the front office brought in O’Connell to fit the team to his vision, which would mean that he would most likely address the offense first.
You might also wonder why O’Connell would look to add another wideout with the talent that already exists in the receiver room. Jefferson is a generational player who only seems to be getting better. Thielen is a reliable target who can feast in the red zone, and Osborn showed his mental fortitude when he bounced back this season and recorded over 600 receiving yards.
It all boils down to two things:
- Thielen’s age and current contract
- The redundancy of skill within the receiver room
Minnesota’s cap is a mess this offseason. They are $15 million over the cap limit and will need to make room by either restructuring contracts or releasing veteran players on large contracts.
Thielen could be one of these contributors the Vikings may ask to restructure his deal. They owe him $16.8 million next season, and his cap hit only goes up the next two years. If he doesn’t agree to a restructured deal, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings consider trading him.
Thielen will likely restructure the deal and stay. But even if he does, it is still time to start thinking about the future at the position. Thielen is still a reliable veteran and will most likely be the Vikings’ WR2 next season. But he isn’t the same guy he was when he put up 1,000 yards during the 2017 and 2018 seasons. He should put up better numbers in a more pass-heavy scheme next year. But Thielen is no longer in his prime. Injuries have been catching up to him the past couple of seasons. The Vikings need to start thinking about who will be Jefferson’s partner in three to four years when Thielen is either retired or on the cusp of calling it a career.
The redundancy of Jefferson, Thielen, and Osborn’s skills is another reason O’Connell would look to address wide receiver this offseason. Last season it was clear that both Thielen and Jefferson made way for Osborn to take the slot position in three-receiver sets. According to PFF, that paid off big time for Osborn, who had the highest passer rating when targeted out of the slot. While Thielen and Jefferson can win outside, they excel when they draw the mismatch against the opposing team’s nickel corner.
Osborn played 51% of his snaps in the slot this season, a percentage that would have been greater if Thielen had stayed healthy. While Osborn had a great season, when he was forced to play out wide early in games, he struggled and was less effective. With Thielen aging, he will need to play more in the slot to stay effective. Therefore, the Vikings will need to find a true outside the numbers wide receiver who, like Jefferson, can consistently win when they split him out wide.
The slot receiver was the focal point of the Rams’ offense in many situations this season. Cooper Kupp reaped the benefits of playing 65.5% of his snaps in the slot. Being the masterful tactician that he is, O’Connell could look to move either Jefferson or Thielen into a more permanent role in the slot and take advantage of their route-running ability against slot corners.
We should also look at what O’Connell has done with the wide receiver position this year alone. Kupp and Robert Woods were already one of the better duos in the NFL, and they had just spent a second-round pick on Van Jefferson last season to serve as the third option. But this didn’t stop the Rams from stockpiling more talent at the position when they brought in DeSean Jackson and spent a second-round pick on Tutu Atwell. Even before Woods went down with his torn ACL during the regular season, the Rams went out and picked free agent Odell Beckham Jr. While Atwell and Jackson didn’t work out this season, OBJ has revitalized his career and become the outside threat the Rams needed.
If these trends show us anything, do not be surprised if you see O’Connell take an aggressive approach to adding talented wide receivers via the draft or free agency.
