Bert Blyleven left the broadcast booth two years ago, but that’s okay. We’re all Bert Blylevens now, remembering the good old days where pitchers pitched, dammit. They went deep into games, not worrying about their pitch counts and certainly not caring about how many times they’ve seen a hitter that day.
Fans have circled Rocco Baldelli with criticism for how he’s used his starting pitchers all season. As of Aug. 9, the Twins have averaged only 4.83 innings per start. Sure, it follows league-wide trends, but pointing that out doesn’t exactly ease anyone’s mind.
The problem is, when Baldelli pulls a starter, he’s turning the game over to a bullpen with a 3.91 ERA. The core difference between the Twins and a team like the Tampa Bay Rays, who are dead last in innings by a starter, is that the Rays are seventh in bullpen ERA. That bullpen will open him up to criticism whenever they blow a lead.
And now, we can probably add Sonny Gray to those critics.
Before the game, Gray was asked about his low workload this season. He responded, “I would like to pitch deep into ballgames.” It’s understated, but it feels clear he was trying to send a message to his coach. To his credit, Gray backed it up with a strong performance, striking out 10 batters in six innings.
With just 87 pitches through six, Baldelli threw Gray back out in the seventh to face Salvador Perez for the third time that game. Perez took Gray deep to center for a single, then Vinnie Pasquantino singled on a ground ball. Like that, Minnesota’s chances of winning went down 11% in a 3-0 game, and Baldelli yanked Gray with the tying run at the plate. Gray threw 92 pitches on the day.
Again, to his credit, Gray told the media afterward that he thanked Baldelli for his trust and that he’d do better next time. Gray surely wants to see that trust extended more often.
The problem is with Gray, however, that he hasn’t put himself into many positions to pitch deep into games. You can run down a list of games where Gray theoretically should’ve pitched more. But a closer look may have you siding with Baldelli on at least some of them.
Say, an Aug. 4 start against the Toronto Blue Jays, where Baldelli pulled Gray after five innings and 0 earned runs. Gray exited the game up 1-0, but you could hardly say he was cruising. He walked two players in the fifth inning and allowed another single. It took 31 pitches to get out of the jam, pushing his total to 96. Emilio Pagán blew the game in spectacular fashion the next inning, but what was Gray going to do after struggling to get out of the fifth?
Or on June 27, when Gray went 7 innings on 97 pitches? He might have been having an easy time that game, but he also took 20 pitches on a 1-2-3 inning in the seventh. With the Twins up 9-0, what was the upside in blasting well past 100 pitches in the eighth?
You can probably say the same about a 10-strikeout performance on May 24. Baldelli pulled him after 96 pitches, and Gray was about to give the top of the order a fourth look at his pitches. It was a 2-0 game, Gray did his job pitching seven innings, and the Twins got the win, to boot. No one should be upset by this.
Or a May 29 start, where Gray got pulled after giving up a single in a 6-0 game after 76 pitches? That wasn’t because of an early call from Baldelli. Gray headed to the 15-day DL afterward with pectoral soreness.
Injury issues probably also explain an early pull on May 18, where he got through 6 innings on 84 pitches. That was his third game back from a hamstring injury that sidelined him in April. What are you gonna do in an 11-2 game? Throw him out there so that he can get his 100th pitch and fans can thank their tiny statues of St. Bert?
So the only games anyone should have any sort of beef with are a couple of starts in late July. And hey, note that the Twins won both those games.
As for Gray’s reputation as a bulldog, workhorse starter, that’s not exactly been the case since 2019. That season, he threw 100-plus pitches 13 times over 31 starts. However, get to 2020, and that drops to just three in 11. Last year the Cincinnati Reds let it happen just once out of 26 starts, with a single start lasting exactly 100 pitches.
This experience shouldn’t exactly be new to Gray, either. So, what gives?
For one, Gray’s never exactly been an efficient pitcher. At least, not since his days with the Oakland A’s. He hasn’t thrown below 15 pitches per inning since 2015. This year, he’s been a bit more efficient than in years past, averaging 16.1 pitches every inning instead of the high-16s-to-mid-17s range of recent years.
It’s an improvement, but still not efficient enough to consistently pitch into the seventh inning or deeper. After all, that averages 97 pitches over six innings, and players cross that 100-pitch threshold less than ever. Just 49 pitchers in all of baseball have done that even five times.
Then there are the results from pitching to a hitter for the third time in a game. Gray’s allowed an .817 OPS to batters the third time through the order this season, which is 15% over the major league average. Granted, we’re talking about 15 plate appearances, but it’s not like this is a major aberration.
In the three years prior (256 AB), he allowed a .794 OPS and a 5.63 ERA when facing batters for the third time in a game. Compare that to MLB averages the third time through the order this season (.774 OPS, 5.48 ERA), and it’s hard to say Gray is uniquely trustworthy to pitch deep into games. In fact, it doesn’t even out-perform the bullpen.
Gray can, and should, aspire to pitch deeper into games. But to do so, he’s got to show that he can easily get through innings. Gray must show that he can be trusted in close games, even when facing batters a third time. He’s challenged Baldelli to give him trust, and it appears he will get a chance to earn it. If he doesn’t, it’s on Gray.
