A vastly improved offense has been the driver for the Green Bay Packers‘ late-season recovery. The Packers need to beat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday to keep their playoff hopes alive. However, Minnesota’s ferocious edge duo, Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith, will challenge Green Bay’s newfound offensive balance.
Hunter and Smith are putting up elite numbers this season. They combine for 20.5 sacks and 71 quarterback pressures and have elite Pro Football Focus grades.
Danielle Hunter
- 10.5 sacks
- 32 pressures
- 62 tackles
- 87.9 PFF grade
Za’Darius Smith
- 10 sacks
- 39 pressures
- 41 tackles
- 84.8 PFF grade
Hunter and Smith dominated the line of scrimmage in the Week 1 matchup between these two teams, and each had a sack. The good news for the Packers? David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, and Zach Tom didn’t play in that game. Yosh Nijman was still playing on the left side. The worst part is that Jake Hanson was at right guard and Royce Newman played at right tackle.
However, the Packers will still have question marks on Sunday. Starting left tackle David Bakhtiari hasn’t played since he underwent an appendectomy two weeks ago. Starting right tackle Yosh Nijman left the Miami Dolphins game with a shoulder injury. Both have a real shot at playing against the Vikings, which would considerably increase Green Bay’s chances to limit the production from Hunter and Smith.
The Packers might only need one, because Tom has played at a high level and has the flexibility to play on either side. During his Tuesday appearance on The Pat McAfee Show, quarterback Aaron Rodgers mentioned that Bakhtiari will probably be back at practice this week.
“I feel confident that he’s gonna be practicing this week and hopefully trending towards playing,” Rodgers said.
At his Tuesday press conference, Matt LaFleur mentioned that Nijman avoided any major injury and is “day to day.” That’s a good indicator that Nijman will play on Sunday.
If the Packers have all their linemen available to play, the offensive line formation will be David Bakhtiari – Elgton Jenkins – Josh Myers – Jon Runyan – Yosh Nijman. That’s a massive difference compared to the Week 1 formation, Yosh Nijman – Jon Runyan – Josh Myers – Jake Hanson – Royce Newman.
Collective production
Hunter and Smith have played at a high level this season, but Minnesota’s collective efficiency in pressuring the quarterback isn’t high. According to ESPN’s pass-rush win rate metric, the Vikings are only 28th (34%), ahead of the Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, Seattle Seahawks, and New Orleans Saints.
Even without Rashan Gary for half the season, the Packers are still 16th (41%). The Packers are also seventh in pass-block win rate (65%). Therefore, the Packers could control a potential matchup nightmare if they can play their ideal offensive line formation.
Passing-game impact
Green Bay’s loss to the Vikings in Week 1 was also the first time the Packers deployed their new passing attack. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs made their NFL debuts, and Allen Lazard didn’t play because of an ankle injury. No Packers receiver had more than 40 yards.
A.J. Dillon was Green Bay’s leader in receiving yards, with five receptions for 46 yards. Their lack of aerial production made the game much easier for the Vikings’ defense, especially when Minnesota forced the Packers to abandon the ground game to catch up.
Almost four months later, Green Bay has some real offensive momentum. Watson has established himself as a productive receiver and an important deep threat. Doubs showed he can be an impactful weapon. And Lazard has been able to revert to his traditional role in the offense.
If the Packers can involve their weapons as they have done in the last six games, it will take a lot of pressure off the offensive line. As a result, it might limit how Hunter and Smith can affect Rodgers. That is a big part of a game where the Packers need to produce to keep up with an electric Vikings offense.
