An awful lot of things have gone wrong for the Green Bay Packers this season, but they may have solved one of their biggest problems as they make one last effort to sneak into the playoffs. I’m talking, of course, about Aaron Rodgers‘ thumb. Rodgers suffered the thumb injury against the New York Giants in London, and the bye week has served him well. After 10 weeks of playing hurt, No. 12 has finally practiced without tape on his finger.
“The thumb is doing a lot better,” Rodgers said during his Tuesday appearance on the Pat McAfee Show. “It was nice to have that week off. The ribs are doing better, too, it was nice to finally get some sleep.”
Rodgers was tough enough to play through the broken thumb, but his dip in performance was undeniable. His completion percentage went from 67.85 to 61.96, his passer rating dropped from 95.7 to 90.1, and his EPA+CPOE composite went from 0.089 (13th of 32 in the league among QBs with at least 16 plays per game on average) to 0.040 (29th). EPA measures an offense’s efficiency on a play-by-play basis, while CPOE measures how much better a quarterback’s completion percentage is compared to expectations.
Rodgers’ stats
Between Weeks 1 and 5
- Comp %: 67.85
- Yards per game: 231.4
- TDs per game: 1.6
- INTs per game: 0.6
- Passer rating: 95.76
- EPA+CPOE composite: 0.089 (15th)
- Success rate: 48.4%
- Packers record: 3-2
Between Weeks 6 and 13
- Comp %: 61.96
- Yards per game: 213.3
- TDs per game: 1.75
- INTs per game: 0.75
- Passer rating: 90.11
- EPA+CPOE composite: 0.040 (36th)
- Success rate: 43.7%
- Packers record: 2-6
Green Bay’s chances with a healthy Rodgers
With seven losses over the last nine games, the Packers are near elimination. According to Five Thirty Eight, they have a 6% chance of making the playoffs. However, if they win out, their chances go up to 58%. They would still need other results from the Washington Commanders, New York Giants, and the Seattle Seahawks to go their way, but there would be a realistic possibility.
The most difficult part is Green Bay’s remaining schedule. They must beat the Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions in their final four games. It will be difficult regardless, but a healthy Aaron Rodgers gives them their best shot.
“If the momentum can start to go in our favor and we can stack a couple, you never know what can happen,” Rodgers mentioned. “We have a lot to play for, but we also need some help. Get this one, got a warm-weather game in Miami, then things could get interesting.”
The offense can finally put it all together for the stretch run. When Rodgers was still healthy in the first weeks of the season, rookie wide receiver Christian Watson struggled with a series of hamstring issues. The worst part of the season for Green Bay correlated with the overlap between Rodgers’ injury and the period before Watson broke out.
Now, for the final month of the season, Green Bay will have a healthy Rodgers, Christian Watson developing into a highly useful piece, and fellow rookie receiver Romeo Doubs coming back from a serious ankle injury suffered against the Detroit Lions.
Moreover, the offensive line was not effective in the first weeks of the season. With David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins still recovering from their knee injuries, Matt LaFleur and Adam Stenavich decided to go with Jake Hanson and Royce Newman on the right side. Now, even if Bakhtiari had an emergency appendectomy and is questionable for the next game or two, the line is more secure with Zach Tom at left tackle, Jenkins at left guard, plus Jon Runyan and Yosh Nijman on the right side. It has been one of the top units in pass protection this season, even though the run-blocking metrics haven’t been so good.
Even running back A.J. Dillon has played better, complementing Aaron Jones in the backfield. The third-year runner hadn’t had any game of at least 60 rushing yards and five yards per carry in the first nine weeks. But in the last four games, Dillon had three. Additionally, he scored two touchdowns in the previous two games after going scoreless on the ground for 10 weeks.
Considering all factors, Aaron Rodgers has a shot to make a run and have his best series of games this season. That’s essential if the Packers have any hope of making the playoffs.
