To keep their playoff hopes alive, the Green Bay Packers must win their Monday Night Football game against the Los Angeles Rams at Lambeau Field. Therefore, the Packers need their defense to exploit how bad quarterback Baker Mayfield has been this season.
Yes, he led the Rams to an impressive comeback against the Las Vegas Raiders two days after LA claimed him off waivers. However, Mayfield has consistently been the worst quarterback in the league this year. He was worse than the Carolina Panthers’ other options, Sam Darnold and P.J. Walker. Moreover, the final two drives last week were complete outliers. Mayfield had also played poorly in that game, just not as bad as in Carolina.
The Packers’ defense hasn’t capitalized against bad quarterbacks this season. They lost games and gave up 27 points to Daniel Jones, 27 to Zach Wilson, 23 to Taylor Heinicke, and 27 to Ryan Tannehill. But this is the week the defense must show up, especially considering how banged up LA’s weapons are. Their top two wide receivers, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson, are on injured reserve. Therefore, the Rams’ best receiving options are Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Tutu Atwell, and tight end Tyler Higbee.
How bad has Mayfield been?
Mayfield was objectively the worst quarterback in the league through the first 13 weeks. He was 33rd among 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA+CPOE composite (EPA is how efficient the play was, and CPOE is how many passes the quarterback completes over the expectation), adjusted EPA/play, success rate, and completion percentage. He was also 31st in air yards per play.
Mayfield was better in his first game for the Los Angeles Rams, but he was still a below-average quarterback. Among 26 quarterbacks with at least 15 plays in Week 14, he was 17th in EPA+CPOE composite, 20th in CPOE, 22nd in success rate, and 20th in completion percentage. However, it’s fair to mention that he played two days after joining the Rams and wasn’t even the official starter for the game.
Player of the week?
Mayfield won the NFC Offensive Player Of the Week award, which seems to be a strong overreaction because of the situation. The Rams claimed him during the week, and he led two touchdown drives in the fourth quarter to win the game.
However, Mayfield’s performance was not good through the first three quarters, which explains his mediocre advanced numbers.
Comparing his performance in the first three quarters to what he did in the fourth is ironic. He went from 25th (among 26 QBs) to third (among 23 QBs) EPA+CPOE composite, from 25th to fifth in adjusted EPA/play, from 25th to fifth in CPOE, from 25th to 10th in success rate, and from 25th to seventh in completion percentage.
It is respectable that Mayfield was clutch for such a critical moment for the Rams in that game. However, it’s doubtful that this small stretch of performance will be sustainable long term.
Good matchup to be aggressive
The Rams’ offense is a favorable matchup for the Packers’ defense. Joe Barry’s unit is 25th in EPA/play, which obviously isn’t great. But their problem is the run defense. The Packers are 31st in rush EPA and 13th in dropback EPA. That means an offense needs to be able to run the ball efficiently to exploit Green Bay’s defense, but the Rams haven’t been able to do that. They are 28th in rush EPA in the league. The passing offense hasn’t been good either, as they are 30th in dropback EPA.
Through 13 games, the Rams have only scored more than 20 points against the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, and Seattle Seahawks. And that is with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp on the field for nine games.
It’s a common theme among Packers analysts and fans to ask for the defensive backs to play more aggressively, and that’s the perfect time to do it. If Joe Barry wants to play zone coverage, that’s not necessarily a bad thing. But cornerbacks (particularly Jaire Alexander, who’s so good at this) need to play closer to the line of scrimmage to challenge opposing wide receivers and make their routes harder to run.
Stafford, Kupp, and Robinson are injured, and the running back situation is a total mess (the Rams starting runner is Cam Akers, who spent a good chunk of the season away from the team after requesting a trade). Therefore, the Packers defense must dominate the game and give the offense time to find their answers throughout the night.
