It’s not ideal when a team takes 16 weeks to find its best lineup. But better late than ever, particularly for a Green Bay Packers team that found a way to stay alive in the NFC playoff race. In their Week 16 road win over the Miami Dolphins, the Packers’ defense finally experienced what it’s like to have the defensive line formation as it was originally constructed. It was heavier, with the ability to affect the passer from the middle and limit the run.
Injuries are always a bad thing. But when Dean Lowry left the game with a calf issue, defensive coordinator Joe Barry was forced to use a rotation that highlighted starters Kenny Clark and Jarran Reed. However, he also had to give more snaps to youngsters T.J. Slaton and Devonte Wyatt. From that point on, the defense improved significantly, to a point where it didn’t allow a single point for the explosive Dolphins offense in the second half. Reed forced and recovered a fumble, Wyatt generated pressure, and the dominance up front forced quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to make mistakes. He finished the game with three interceptions, including Rasul Douglas’ game-winner.
“Our guys seemed like they were getting more pressure up front on Tua and making him move out of the pocket,” head coach Matt LaFleur said after the game. “We knew he’s a guy who’s going to anticipate and going to let the ball go, and if you can read the quarterback the right way, it also gives you opportunities.”
In July, football analyst Ben Fennell, who works for CBS, NFL Network, and the Philadelphia Eagles, suggested that Green Bay planned to build a heavier and stronger defensive line.
“They want more two-way players who can be effective and impactful against the run and pass,” Fennell said. “Guys like Dean Lowry, Tyler Lancaster, Billy Winn, Quinton Dial are average and one-dimensional. Reed has shown he can be a dominant two-way player, a stout run-defender who had a double-digit sack season. They hope Wyatt is similar. Scheme-wise, they want upfield disruptors, one-gappers, more than line-of-scrimmage dwellers. Disruption is production.”
It’s not that Dean Lowry has been bad. He’s been slightly above average and has a better PFF grade than Reed and Slaton. However, Lowry is not a fit for the style of defense that best suits the Packers. Lowry is kind of an old-school 3-4 defensive end. Still, considering how everyone in the NFL uses sub-packages nowadays, it’s common to use just two interior defensive linemen on the field. In this case, Lowry is too light to be one of them. If he’s a package player designed to be on the field when they are with three defensive linemen, his usage would make more sense. Reed, Slaton, and Wyatt are more impactful and better suited to occupy space and be effective alongside Kenny Clark in two-iDL formations.
These days, it’s questionable to build a team through the defense. Still, when the Packers decided to do that, using their two first-round picks to get defensive players, plus all the investments in re-signings and bringing Jarran Reed in free agency, the team at least should employ their assets in the best possible way.
Defense needs to step up
The Packers still have a real shot to make the playoffs. According to Five Thirty Eight, their chances of making the postseason went from 11% before the game to 27% after beating the Dolphins. That’s a marked improvement – their chances were as low as 2% before their winning streak. However, they must win their last two regular-season games against the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions to make it.
Green Bay’s two NFC North rivalries have strong and complete offenses. Therefore, the Packers’ defense will have to show up in the next two weeks.
The Packers suffered multiple offensive injuries in Miami (Christian Watson and Yosh Nijman). David Bakhtiari is also uncertain to come back from an appendix issue. The offense hasn’t been reliable all season. Even though it’s been much better in the last six weeks, it’s not a good idea to bank on it to keep up with the Vikings and the Lions if they score close to or more than 30 points.
If the Packers keep using their interior defensive linemen in the right way and increase Slaton and Wyatt’s playing time in place of Lowry, there’s a realistic scenario where they can achieve what was thought to be impossible.
