One of the most visible holes in the Minnesota Timberwolves roster this season has been their lack of three-point shooting. They’ve only shot 34.4% from behind the arc as a team, tying them for 21st in the league with the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder. They are also in the bottom half of the league in attempts, averaging 32.6 per game. That isn’t terrible, considering they are treading water around .500 with injuries and finding ways to score successfully in the paint. However, it has been their Achilles heel in many winnable games and has been a stark departure from their offensive identity from last year, where they led the league in attempts (41.3) and were 12th in efficiency (35.8%).
Some of this season’s drop-off in three-point shooting efficiency is due to extended injuries to two of their best distance shooters, Karl-Anthony Towns and Taurean Prince. However, it’s becoming more apparent roster construction could be the bigger issue. The Timberwolves traded away Malik Beasley this summer, who currently ranks fifth in the league in three-pointers made, on good efficiency at 38.1%.
The team attempted to replace Beasley’s firepower with more minutes for Jaylen Nowell and by signing veteran sharpshooter Bryn Forbes. While this seemed like a good solution, in theory, it hasn’t worked as planned. Nowell has had some spectacular games, but he has struggled to find consistency from long distance this year. He’s only shooting 29.6%, a large drop-off from his 39.4% last season. Forbes has also struggled to find his shot this year, making only 25.7% of his three-pointers, compared to 41% last season. Forbes has only played 210 minutes so far this season, but it seems unlikely he will get much time on the court to shoot out of his slump. His height and lack of defensive ability make him difficult to fit into the rotation regularly.
So what is a team to do when they need shooting but have already moved many of the trade assets they had and are bordering on surpassing the luxury tax? Sign a random tall guy who can shoot but has been stuck in the G-League, and hope for the best. Cue Matt Ryan.
It’s not as ridiculous as it sounds, I swear. The Miami Heat, who beat the Wolves on Monday, have had a lot of success with this tactic in recent history. Duncan Robinson (6’7”) and Max Strus (6’5”) went undrafted. However, they made their way into the Heat rotation on the strength of their three-point shooting and ability to grab a few clutch rebounds.
Just a few weeks ago, the Wolves decided to give this strategy a shot and signed Matt Ryan, a tall undrafted shooter of their own. Although he’s played brief stints in six other games, the Wolves gave Ryan his first significant minutes against the Heat. Ryan seized the opportunity and played well, shooting 2 of 4 from beyond the arc, grabbing three rebounds, and getting one assist. While this stat line may not blow you away, it is emblematic of what Ryan can contribute to the Wolves as a role player in small minutes, given that the Wolves need more three-point shooters. Ryan is shooting 37.2% from three this season. While the sample size is incredibly small right now (43 total attempts), there’s plenty of reason to believe he could maintain that efficiency in expanded minutes.
Ryan hit 36.3% of his threes in 4 seasons playing college basketball, and he had a peak year where he shot 43.4% on 2.3 attempts per game with Notre Dame. After his successful season, Ryan transferred to Vanderbilt, where he became a higher-volume shooter, taking 6.2 attempts per game. However, his efficiency dropped a lot as a result (32.8%). However, in his final year of college ball at Chattanooga, Ryan continued to increase his volume to 7.2 three-point attempts per game and increased his efficiency to 35.9%.
These numbers may suggest that Ryan is unlikely to become the efficient volume shooter that Beasley was for the Wolves. However, they suggest he can reliably hit a three-pointer when he’s open on the wing. And it’s not just the numbers that indicate this, but also the eye test. I’m no shot doctor, but a few things stand out about his shot mechanics that make me hopeful Ryan can replicate the shooting performance that he had in Miami.
The first is that Ryan has a high release point on his shot. The World Association of Basketball Coaches notes that having a high release point (which they define as having your elbow above your eyes) facilitates a higher arc on the ball, which increases its probability of going in. When you watch Ryan shoot, you can see him putting this concept into practice and how it contributes to the consistency of his shot. On all four of his attempts against the Heat, he kept his elbow high, and the arc of the ball was nearly identical every time, even on the shots that rimmed out.
Ryan is also a very quick shooter once he gets the ball in open space. This is important because the quicker you can get your shot off, the less time your opponent has to close out and contest on the perimeter. That can backfire, of course, if rushing the shot messes with the consistency of your form. However, that doesn’t seem to be a problem for Ryan. On both of his makes against the Heat, Ryan got into his shot motion almost immediately after catching the ball, which allowed him to get a clean shot off over the defender closing out.
Beyond just shooting quickly, Ryan also seems to make decisions quickly. Almost every time he touched the ball, he was decisive about whether to shoot or pass to an open teammate, which helps facilitate ball movement on the court. It also keeps teammates engaged, especially on a team like the Timberwolves with plenty of isolation scorers. It’s also important for roleplayers in the NBA. It means you understand that your job is to shoot if you’re open, but otherwise, it’s to facilitate getting your team’s stars the ball in places they can score easily. Ryan’s assist against the Heat was an excellent example of this. Almost immediately after catching a pass, Ryan recognized that Rudy Gobert had a free runway to the hoop and passed him the ball for an easy score.
Ryan’s path to permanent rotation minutes may be difficult, as Prince and Kyle Anderson are better defenders and more versatile players than he is right now. Once they come back, it’s unlikely that Ryan will take many of their minutes unless he continues to shoot the lights out in their absence. However, almost every team needs more tall wings who can shoot, and the Timberwolves need as many as they can get. If Ryan proves that he’s a solid defender and continues to rebound consistently, he could carve out a role for himself on the Wolves similar to that of Robinson or Strus on the Heat.
