It seemed like fate that Carlos Correa would stay with the Minnesota Twins. There was always a possibility of him returning to the organization, despite the challenges he faced last offseason. Many Twins fans are familiar with Correa’s unusual obstacles after opting out of his original 3-year, $105 million deal. If you need a refresher, let me provide you with a summary of his hectic journey and the accompanying events.
On December 13, 2022, Correa and the San Francisco Giants agreed to a 13-year, $350 million contract. But a week later, on December 20, Correa pivoted after a difference of opinion with the Giants on his medicals with the Giants. He signed a 12-year, $315 million deal with the New York Mets, but they had a similar difference of opinion on Correa’s medicals from an injury he sustained in the minors. However, the Mets organization was more determined to work through the differences to get a deal done. Because of this, they offered a revised six-year, $157.5 million contract with a series of club options.
A few weeks passed, leaving everyone, including the Twins, in limbo. But on January 11, 2023, he shocked the sports world again by re-signing with Minnesota for six years, $200 million guaranteed. The Twins organization was already aware of Correa’s pre-existing injury because he had been with the team the previous year. Therefore, they were willing to pay him more than the Mets, securing their shortstop of the future.
But Correa is having an underwhelming first year under his new contract, slashing .228/.301/.395, plus is leading the league in GIDP with 22. Worse yet, he’s inching closer to a stat nobody wants. He is on pace to strike out over 150 times, which would be a career-high. It has been tough to watch. However, last year was slightly better with a 291/.366/.467.
Given everything that has transpired this offseason, you would think he was going to have a stellar year no matter where he ended up. From how Correa’s been performing this season, it’s fair to say he’d have similar numbers playing with the Mets.
With the trade deadline now behind us, I’ve been pondering whether the Twins would have abandoned their quest for Carlos Correa had he signed with the Mets prior to the deadline and cleared his medicals. Allow me to elaborate.
After they paid big money to sign Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and other big-name players this offseason, the Mets pivoted quickly and paid big money to offload their contracts. For context, the Mets are paying Verlander about $35.5 million this year and next in dead money as part of the trade with the Houston Astros, which equates to around $372,000 per inning he pitched for them this season.
Thanks to luxury tax payments and what they’ve paid to trade their highly-paid stars, the Mets are spending about $210 million in dead money, which would rank as the 14th-highest payroll in MLB. Factor in what they would have spent this offseason to get Correa, and they would have commited about $806.1 million committed to free agents this offseason..
Let’s say Correa had signed with the Mets. The team is 51-61, 20 games back in the NL East, and 7.5 games back in the NL wild card race. Then it would be safe to assume the Mets would have tried to trade Correa at the deadline. They’d probably have to eat some of his contract to entertain offers from contending teams.
The Texas Rangers traded for Scherzer at the trade deadline. Scherzer agreed to waive his no-trade clause because the Mets told him that the organization would look to make 2024 a transition year as they attempt to compete again in 2025 or 2026. When an organization makes this kind of transition right before the deadline, it usually is code for rebuild. It was a failed attempt by the Mets to buy a championship.
Minnesota would have been calling the Mets with entertaining offers to regain their former All-Star shortstop, no question. Given how quickly the Mets were moving days before the deadline throwing money away to get their blockbuster signings out of New York, the Twins might have been able to work something out.
They’d probably work to get the Mets to eat most of Correa’s contract. In exchange, they’d probably have to give up a top prospect. Minnesota might have been able to get him for less than we paid for him in the offseason knowing one of our top prospects would make an impact with the Mets in the coming years.
This is all hypothetical, but still worth exploring. So many factors can influence the outcome of how Correa would have been impacted, from the batting order to the schedule to the pitchers to even the weather. There is no way to know what would have happened with so many variables. The only thing we can do is guess based on what we know, and all I know is Carlos Correa was always destined to make Minnesota home. “Last year, I felt like I was part of a family,” he said after re-signing with the Twins, Correa said, “my heart was here.”
