For all of the eye-rolling and yawning that clichés bring, some overused phrases are helpful nuggets of truth. One wouldn’t have to follow baseball for long before the words “baseball is a game of adjustments” infiltrates their brain. It is true, though, that players must adjust to remain successful in Major League Baseball.
The greatest pitchers of all time have had rough patches when certain pitches lose their sharpness. Some of the best batters develop bad habits or features they must overcome to end a slump. Minnesota’s Alex Kirilloff credited “getting started earlier” with his swing as the adjustment that helped earn him AL Player of the Week honors along with the NL’s Austin Riley. As you may recall, he hit .345 with three homers and 10 RBIs to help the Twins win five of seven games from July 17 to 23. He beat out Kyle Tucker’s .429, four homers and 9 RBIs as well as Edouard Julien’s .467, two homers, and 13 RBIs among others.
Richard Schenk is a hitting coach who worked with Ian Happ and Kerry Carpenter, and Aaron Judge in 2017 before his breakout in 2018. Shenk noticed a significant difference in Kirilloff’s swing before and after the All-Star break (ASB). Kirilloff has begun to start his leg kick earlier, resulting in him being loaded and ready to hit essentially at the pitch’s release. Schenk is a massive proponent of this “ready at release” mantra, saying that “you will be waiting for the fastball, and if you’re waiting for the fastball, it’s much easier to wait a tick longer for the offspeed pitch.”
The results from this change have mostly been fantastic. Before the ASB, Kirilloff slugged .395. Since then, he’s been slugging an impressive .593. The rest of his slash line has not seen the same jump, falling from .273/.372 down to .259/.305 in the same frames. These decreases are not necessarily of great concern. Conversely, the massive ball-striking leap is noteworthy. His great hitting simply means he doesn’t have as much opportunity to walk, and therefore boost his OBP.
Kirilloff has become an aggressive hitter. Over the last 400 pitches he’s seen, he’s swinging around 5% more than he’s expected based on the pitches he’s seen. Naturally, Kirilloff is also swinging and missing more often. His pre-ASG swinging strike rate (SwStr%) of 11.3% has risen to 18.2% post-ASG.
Therein lies the caveat to Kirilloff’s recent surge. Increased aggression and whiffs have led to a 33.9% strikeout rate post-ASG (24.6% pre-ASG). While Kirilloff has shown quality of contact gains, he’s exposing himself to dreaded strikeouts. This has not affected his clutch stats with RISP. He’s thrived with a .267/.250/.667 slash line in the 16 plate appearances that he’s taken with RISP. Furthermore, he’s kept the ball off the ground in those situations, with just a 45.5% ground-ball rate. Unfortunately, his K% woes extend into the clutch, where he’s struck out 31.9% of the time.
What would happen if Kirilloff balanced out his aggression with patience? Would he be able to maintain the gains he’s made post-ASG? It may not be right to ask these sorts of questions. Who’s to say hitting streaks necessitates simultaneous OBP streaks?
It’s important to remember how long a season is and how players make multiple adjustments throughout. Kirilloff is reaping the benefits of a more aggressive and better-timed approach. He’s only seen roughly 200 to 250 pitches post-ASG, so his more aggressive nature somewhat predates this swing change. It will be interesting to see how his aggression and earlier leg kick continue to work.
It is also important to remember with Kirilloff that he’s compiled just 645 plate appearances in the past three years. He’s still very much a young and developing hitter, and we’ve yet to see the final product he’s been working on.
