Brian Gutekunst cautioned that it isn’t finalized yet, but the writing is on the wall. By the time the 2023 NFL Draft begins, Aaron Rodgers will be a New York Jet.
We’ve had over 40 days to process Rodgers’ intention to play in New Jersey, and the leverage has been debated every which way. Ultimately, the trade looks good on both sides. New York got the quarterback they wanted without getting fleeced, and Gutekunst stayed strong and got the capital he believed Rodgers was worth. Now he can build around his chosen quarterback.
Though Gutekunst hadn’t spoken directly to Rodgers, he thanked him for his time in Green Bay, reiterated that he’ll will always be a Packer, and reminded us that players like Rodgers don’t come around very often. But with Rodgers’ age, Jordan Love‘s development, and the team’s poor 8-9 record in 2022 as factors, it was time to make a deal.
Mentally, Rodgers has been a Jet for me since his initial announcement. Therefore, the only truly staggering news is the fact that No. 12 will become No. 8 in New York.
With the trade likely finalized before the draft begins on Thursday, let’s break down the compensation and how it affects the beginning of the Jordan Love era.
For 2023, that means a first-round pick swap, a second-rounder, and a sixth-rounder with a very good chance of a first-round pick in 2024. That’s a great haul to build a foundation around new starter Jordan Love.
Moving up two spots in the first round might not seem like much. But Gutekunst fought hard for the pick swap, telling the media, “If I were to do that, I would be doing that because I thought it was important.”
That pick swap could be the difference in landing Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Ohio State wide receiver would fit beautifully in Matt LaFleur’s offense but might not make it to the mid-teens, especially with the New England Patriots picking at 14 with a major need for pass-catchers. But it also provides flexibility to target other positions, take advantage of any players that slide out of the top 10, or find a trade partner if they want to trade down.
It was also great for team #13for12.
The second-round pick is just as important, allowing the Packers to add top talent at positions not generally valuable or in the mix for them in the first round. Green Bay should have a slew of great options available at tight end and wide receiver, and potentially their top choice of safety, all available early in the second round. Alternatively, they have the option to package picks 42 and 45 to move up to the top of the second round and take a player that falls from the first round, as they did with Christian Watson last year. The two top-50 players are likely a better use of resources, but this extra pick gives them options.
On Day 3, the Packers are essentially swapping their fifth-rounder for New York’s sixth-round pick. While less exciting than the higher-round selections, the sixth-rounder could put them in a good position to find Jordan Love’s backup.
The 2024 pick could end up being the most valuable selection, and it sounds like this was the sticky spot in the negotiation. A second-round pick on its own is nice, but barring a Rodgers injury, that pick should turn into a first. It’s not like Zach Wilson is going to outplay Rodgers and take over as the starter, even if Rodgers’ play really falls off.
If Love doesn’t look like The Guy in his first year as a starter, that probably means the Packers are going to have a high pick in 2024. Having a second first-round pick gives them the option to trade up for whatever quarterback they have their eyes on without giving too much future draft capital.
On the other hand, if Love is good, the 2024 class is believed to be much more talented at the top than the 2023 class. That pick allows Green Bay to target whatever their major areas of need are and get some blue-chip players to continue building around Love.
Finally, one of the most beautiful parts of the deal is something not included in the compensation. The Packers won’t have to give the Jets any sort of consolation-prize pick if Rodgers retires or is bad. While it’s understandable the Jets want a safety net because of Rodgers’ mercurial nature, it isn’t Green Bay’s job to hedge New York’s bet.
Rodgers’ public appeal may have wavered in recent years. But he’s one of the best to ever throw a football, and it will take a long time to get used to him not ending his career with the Packers. However, this trade offers both parties a fresh start on the best possible terms, and the trade compensation is a great start toward building the future. The Packers have a lot to work with this weekend thanks to the trade. Let’s see what they can do with it.
