Once in a blue moon, a rookie gets to start at tight end for an NFL team. Tight end is considered one of the hardest positions to adjust to coming out of college. Players must learn two jobs simultaneously: offensive line and wide receiver. It’s a complicated blend of the two.
Luke Musgrave is in such a predicament. He saw limited playing time last year at Oregon State, and he’s going to get a whole lot of playing time with the Green Bay Packers this season. Musgrave is running with the starters in camp and has been all offseason.
When I watch Musgrave in a Packers uniform, I see flashes of Robert Tonyan. Musgrave might even be a better pass-catcher than Tonyan was. Tonyan’s best season was in 2020 when he recorded 52 receptions for over 575 yards and 11 touchdowns. It was the best we’d seen from a Packers tight end since Jermichael Finley. In 2011, Finley had his best season, catching 55 balls for over 750 yards and eight touchdowns.
Musgrave doesn’t have to put up those kinds of numbers to be a successful starter. The odds of that are incredibly slim. Those are lofty stats, especially for a rookie.
In the last 10 years, there are only four tight ends that ranked in the top 25 of all-time receiving yards. Infamous former Chicago Bears player and coach Mike Ditka held the record with 1,076. That record is from 1961, though. The highest-drafted tight end ever, Kyle Pitts, is second with 1,026. Then there’s a bit of drop-off, at least in recent history.
In 2017, Evan Engram had 722 yards for the New York Giants, and Noah Fant had 562 for the Denver Broncos in 2019. But Engram and Fant have found new homes since then. Just inside the top-25 all-time is 2018 Mark Andrews for the Baltimore Ravens with 552 yards.
The point is that it’s pretty unreasonable to expect some incredible season out of Musgrave. The rookie records are similar to some of the best seasons recorded by tight ends in Green Bay’s recent past. The hope would be that Musgrave and fellow rookie tight end Tucker Kraft could get there someday. It may not be this season, though.
The outlook for rookie tight ends producing right away is not great. Musgrave has the potential to break the status quo. His athleticism was amongst the best ever at the tight end position.
Musgrave’s routes and his hands looked good during camp. Obviously, he’ll have to adjust to the speed of the NFL game, but that’s at every position. The question with him is not in the receiving game, it’s in the blocking game.
In his limited playing time in college, Musgrave was an effective receiver who engaged in the blocking game. He’s willing and able to block. He has the demeanor and the technique to be a good blocker, he’s just a bit lean and could use some more strength to battle in the trenches. It takes some time to develop those skills. Matt LaFleur has given playing time to receivers who are good blockers. Marcedes Lewis spent years as the starting tight end for his blocking ability alone.
One of the biggest differences in Musgrave’s circumstances is competition. It is very rare for a rookie tight end to come in and be a starter. In 2021, Pitts was the first option on a Falcons team that made him the starter right away. Russell Gage was the second-leading receiver, with 770 yards. Receiver-turned-running back Cordarrelle Patterson was the third. Pitts had just under 300 yards more than Gage. Engram actually was not the leading receiver for his team. Sterling Shepard was. Shepard had nine more yards on five fewer receptions. Odell Beckham Jr. only played four games that year. Engram had a chance to shine.
There were no other top-end guys competing to take reps away from these young tight ends. They had the chance to be a focal point in the offense, and Musgrave can also be if LaFleur enables him in the offense.
Having an inexperienced quarterback throwing the ball is another roadblock. In both the Pitts and Engram examples, they had future Hall of Fame quarterbacks throwing them the ball. Pitts had Matt Ryan and Engram had Eli Manning. Jordan Love is not a sure-fire future Hall inductee at this point in his career.
Engram and Pitts are not really known for their outstanding blocking ability. But they are some of the most valued tight ends in the NFL. If the passing game develops as hoped, it’s alright if Musgrave is not an elite blocker. That’s what the other tight ends in the room are for.
Last year, Green Bay ran 12-personnel 29% of the time. That was the second-highest mark in the league. Twelve-personnel just means that there are two tight ends on the field with two receivers and one running back. Tonyan played the role of receiving tight end who could pitch in as a blocker, and Lewis filled the role of the blocking tight end who could pitch in as a receiver. I’d imagine the Packers have a similar idea in mind with their pair of rookie tight ends. Musgrave fills Tonyan’s role, and one day Kraft fills Lewis’ role while offering some pass-catching ability.
For better or worse, Musgrave is going to get a shot to be the Packers’ starting tight end. He’s got the potential to be a difference-maker. His route running, size, and speed are all what you look for in a pass-catching tight end. Can he overcome the learning curve that comes with being a rookie tight end and put it all together to be an effective starter for the Green and Gold?
Time to find out.
All stats and data via ESPN, Football Reference, and Statmuse unless otherwise noted
