We’re still a little ways out from training camp, so we’re full of peak off-season optimism.
The Green Bay Packers enter the season with an unproven quarterback and receiving corps. But until we’re given any reason to believe otherwise, this group gives us a lot to be excited about.
We’ve seen tantalizing flashes of second-year wide receiver Christian Watson’s potential to be a true star in the league. The speed demon suffered from some injuries and drops early in his rookie season but bounced back to finish the year off spectacularly. Even better, we saw a budding chemistry between Watson and Jordan Love in an impressive, albeit limited, showing against the NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles late last season.
Watson has a stratosphere-high ceiling and seems well on his way to reaching it. If he continues to grow as Green Bay’s WR1, does Watson have a shot at making his first Pro Bowl?
Watson came alive against the Dallas Cowboys last season and broke out into the WR1 type we’ve hoped for, but it’s admittedly a small sample size. Watson’s production and touchdown rate dipped as the season waned. But even when he wasn’t the primary target, his presence impacted the game.
Thanks to his speed and big-play threat, and his chance to be used on gadget plays, opposing defenses needed to prepare for a breakout moment on every down. Watson is also a force to be reckoned with as a blocker, a necessity in Matt LaFleur’s offense. He started seeing more double teams in the final weeks of 2022.
LaFleur expects a big season from Watson. LaFleur looks to build on Watson’s promising rookie season by having him develop his route tree and run more complex routes. Watson was a better route runner than many expected in his rookie season, and he will become even more dangerous as he develops that skillset.
Watson tested as one of the most physically gifted wide receivers to ever play the game. So far, he’s lived up to that. Can he start 2023 strong and be a Pro Bowler?
Considering only the context of his team, Watson has three primary challenges: stepping into the spotlight, an unproven quarterback, and competition from his teammates.
In college, Watson often played a supporting role to the run-first NDSU offense. As a rookie, he brought a surprise factor teams weren’t ready for. Even though Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon will be a focal point of the offense, no NFL team can just run every play. This will be Watson’s first chance to prove an offense can run through him.
Second, Jordan Love is still unproven. There are legitimate reasons to be optimistic about the first-year starter beyond blind homerism, but Love will likely have his ups and downs with his first time in the spotlight. If those downs are too frequent, it will hurt Watson.
Finally, Love is still learning who his go-to guys are. This isn’t like with Aaron Rodgers, where he’s developed psychic connections with his guys. Love and Romeo Doubs have developed a beautiful chemistry through OTAs, and tight ends could also be featured heavily in the mix. If Love spreads his targets around or finds a different security blanket, Watson might not get enough spotlight to attain Pro Bowl status.
League-wide, Watson will face heavy competition for those few Pro Bowl spots. While the NFC might be weaker than the AFC in terms of team quality and elite quarterbacks, there is no dearth of talent at wide receiver.
Including both those initially selected and those who came in as replacements, here are the receiver groups of the last two Pro Bowls.
2022: Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, Mike Evans, CeeDee Lamb
2023: Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin, Amon-Ra St. Brown
You can lock in Jefferson for this year. He’s become one of the league’s best receivers and a pop culture icon. Brown is either a Pro Bowler or will play in the Super Bowl. Kupp, Samuel, Evans, Lamb, McLaurin, and St. Brown all have the potential to make the Pro Bowl again, before even considering other rising stars and breakout candidates. It’ll be a crowded race, so Watson will really need to distinguish himself.
And because fans vote on the Pro Bowl, the results are often dumb. It’s not the be-all-end-all of football stardom thanks to both the public and professionals being doofuses, but it’s still a nice award for a young player to receive.
Thankfully, much more credible people than I view Watson as a breakout candidate. ESPN’s Mina Kimes, CBS Sports’ Jeff Kerr, PFF, Forbes’ Rob Reischel, and others have all noted Watson as a potential breakout player.
Can the second-year receiver live up to the hype? The tools and opportunity to ascend as one of the NFC’s top receivers is there. It’s a lot of pressure, and he’ll have to catch attention outside of the Packer fandom. But Watson has the skill to represent this NFC in a Pro Bowl I probably won’t watch this winter.
