Running back Jonathan Taylor would be a fit on many teams. However, I didn’t expect the Green Bay Packers to be part of the sweepstakes. But here we are.
According to ESPN’s Stephen Holder, the Packers were the mystery team trying to acquire the former All-Pro from the Indianapolis Colts. The biggest suitors are the Miami Dolphins, who are much closer to an all-in mode than Green Bay.
From ESPN:
The Packers would’ve studied Taylor closely. Not only was he a college star at the nearby University of Wisconsin, where the Packers sent a strong contingent to scout, but Green Bay also was in the market for a running back in 2020 — the year Taylor was draft eligible.
This is difficult to understand, though. The Packers are already making a huge investment at the position, paying starter Aaron Jones $11 million in 2023. He’s slated to make $12 million and count for $17.7 million against the cap in 2024. Moreover, A.J. Dillon is a former second-round pick and is entering the final year of his deal. Why would the Packers, the least-expensive offense in football this year and living in a transitional phase, triple down on their investment in such a low-value position?
Brian Gutekunst has shown he values the running back position more than the consensus, which prompted him to extend Jones and draft Dillon so early. At first glance, Taylor fits Green Bay’s timeline because he’s only 24 years old. But the investment would be huge. The Packers would need to part ways with significant draft capital — the Colts reportedly want the equivalent value of a first-round pick — and probably extend Taylor immediately after the trade.
For starters, Gutekunst has a history of being involved in every conversation — and rarely pulling the trigger. Philosophically, he hates giving up future draft considerations, particularly in a year where nobody knows exactly what the Packers will be. If the team is bad, and/or Jordan Love struggles, Green Bay may end up trading away an extremely valuable draft pick for a running back. Even if it’s not a first-rounder, it’s still high draft capital. For a general manager who hasn’t been willing to overspend near trade deadlines when Aaron Rodgers was the quarterback, it’s hard to imagine such a dramatic change in path.
How could it work?
If draft capital is so valuable, and it wouldn’t make sense to keep Jones, Dillon, and Taylor simultaneously, those two factors create a possible scenario where Gutekunst and Colts general manager Chris Ballard could work around. For instance, the Packers could trade Dillon and a mid-round pick for Taylor.
The Colts would get a potential long-term running back in return, and some draft compensation for the difference in upside. The Packers would have a genuine potential bell-cow to pair alongside Aaron Jones — and to replace him. Jones is entering his seventh year in the league, a dangerous time frame for running backs.
The Packers could then extend Taylor, expecting to release Jones next offseason or let Taylor play out his contract. If Taylor walked away in free agency, they would receive the draft capital back (and maybe more) in the form of a compensatory pick, and losing Dillon wouldn’t be a huge concern because he’s slated to be a free agent anyway.
It’s not easy to pull off, but it’s not absurd either.
Who benefits from the rumor?
When rumors emerge, it’s always important to analyze who benefits the most from leaking it. Considering Holder is a reporter based in Indianapolis and the circumstances around Taylor’s market, there are strong indications that the Colts are the beneficiaries of the reporting.
A realistic scenario is that the Packers made a call to take the temperature on Tayor, a former University of Wisconsin star. If the Colts were desperate to a point where they were willing to sell low, Green Bay could step in. So, Indianapolis might be using this preliminary contact to create a competition.
The reports indicate the Colts want an absurd value for Taylor — they asked for Jaylen Waddle, for example.
How could Indy extract the most out of the situation? Creating a contest between more than one team to move up the price. Would the Packers enter a bidding war? I doubt it. But the move makes sense for the Colts.
The Packers passed up the opportunity to sign any offensive free agents this offseason. The entire offense has been established with draft picks and home-grown talent. Even if Gutekunst analyzed that establishing the run game was important to help Jordan Love in his first year as a full-time starter, Green Bay already has Jones and Dillon, who both know the system and are effective runners. Oh, and by the way, Jones has been more reliable and efficient than Taylor.
It’s smart to understand the market and see how much capital is necessary to close out some deals. But sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make.
