Along with the “running backs don’t matter” talk, NFL analysts have been high on one particular narrative about the position: passing the ball to running backs is less efficient than to wide receivers and tight ends. The average depth of target (ADoT) for the natural receiving positions is much higher, and therefore more efficient, than for running backs. For example, Allen Lazard had a 12.4 ADoT for the Green Bay Packers, and Aaron Jones averaged 0.2. Considering how important Jones is for the Packers’ offense, it’s imperative to build a more efficient structure around him for the unit.
Furthering the point
Experts have frequently used Christian McCaffrey as a favorable example in conversations about the value of running backs. After all, the San Francisco 49ers jumped from 18th in EPA/play during Weeks 1-6, before the McCaffrey trade, to second when he was a focal point of their offense between Weeks 8 and 18.
But there’s a crazy aspect to this: The Carolina Panthers also got much better after the deal. The team moved from 32nd in EPA/play to 12th.
How could both teams get better? It comes down to how they used McCaffrey, and the difference in ADoT is probably the main reason. McCaffrey’s ADoT was 0.0 with the Panthers. That means they usually threw him the ball at the line of scrimmage. Carolina’s passing offense heavily utilized McCaffrey (5.5 receptions per game) but in inefficient ways. So even if he is a good player, his usage undermined the entire unit. After the Panthers traded him, offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo could explore more efficient avenues, and the offense got better.
Under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco, McCaffrey’s ADoT jumped to 2.0 in 4.7 receptions per game. That’s still less than a normal receiver — even a “slot back” like Deebo Samuel had 4.2 ADoT. But it’s a significant difference and allowed McCaffrey to be more efficient on a play-by-play basis without hurting the rest of the offense.
There are obviously other reasons for the Panthers and the 49ers getting better, but Christian McCaffrey was a centerpiece of the discussion for both of them.
Around the league
McCaffrey’s 2.0 ADoT is unusual for three-down running backs. Even though three-down backs occasionally align in the slot or receive passes down the field, they often get dump-offs behind the line of scrimmage. But even if the number is unrealistic, there are other examples around the NFL that show how it’s possible for the Packers to better exploit Aaron Jones. Dallas Cowboys’ Tony Pollard had a 1.4 ADoT, and New Orleans Saints’ Alvin Kamara had 0.9, even in a down season.
One negative example is Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers. Even though he’s considered a good receiver, he had 0.8 ADoT last year. That highlights how conservative the offense was — and probably why they fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi.
Jones year to year
It’s relatively concerning that Jones’ numbers have gotten worse. In 2019, he had a 2.8 ADoT in his first year as a full-time starter. That went down to 1.2 and 0.9 in 2020 and 2021, more sustainable numbers and realistic targets for the new season. Last year, the number plummeted to 0.2.
The total number of Aaron Jones’ receptions increased gradually, but not to the point of interfering with the sampling: 49, 47, 52, and 59 since 2019. Without Davante Adams last season, the Packers changed their offense to a “touchdown or checkdown” approach.
While Davante Adams had a 9.0 ADoT in 2021, Christian Watson‘s ADoT was 13.8 in 2022. Meanwhile, Aaron Jones’ number fell from 0.9 to 0.2. Basically, Aaron Rodgers was throwing bombs to Watson or checkdowns to Jones, meaning they were not properly attacking the intermediate areas of the field.
PFF’s heatmap of Rodgers’ throws from last season confirms this hypothesis. He most frequently targeted the flat and deep zones.
With such a young receiving core, Aaron Jones is essential for the offense. He’s both the most experienced offensive weapon, and he has been the most prolific and consistent playmaker.
“It’s more than just Jordan Love,” said head coach Matt LaFleur about his expectations for the offense in 2023. “It’s the receivers, the tight ends, how do we block, how effective are we running the football. We’ve got two great backs, we’ve got most of our experience in the backfield and upfront. How do we lean into that?”
If the Packers will need and want to lean into Aaron Jones, they must explore more effective ways to use him. And the average depth of target will be a smart way to analyze if they will be successful in doing so.
