With the exodus of older players like Aaron Rodgers, Allen Lazard, and Randall Cobb this offseason, it became clear that the Green Bay Packers organization was headed for a youth movement, especially on offense. According to an ESPN report by Bill Barnwell and Mike Clay, Green Bay is looking at one of the youngest group of skill-position players the NFL has seen in recent memory. As those veterans left town, the Packers replaced them with players who are still in the earliest stages of their respective careers. While in June and July it’s easy to get excited about the pure potential this group oozes, that youth will almost certainly cause its fair share of headaches come September.
Barnwell published his list of the top wide receiver, tight end, and running back groups on Monday, which included a few main parameters. Only the top-five players in the group are considered, injuries matter, and wide receivers are weighted more than running backs. With those rules in place, he had Green Bay’s unit ranked 28th out of 32 teams in the NFL. For those doing the math at home, that’s the bottom five. My initial response was “No way! Aaron Jones is amazing! Christian Watson is incredible!” But once I scrolled up and down the list, 28th actually felt like a pretty fair assessment of where the unit is now.
The unfettered optimism is perfect for the summer months, before the team has to, you know, take the field against other NFL teams. It’s easy to talk yourself into the youth movement, with it all playing out perfectly and each player hitting his ceiling right away. Aaron Jones becoming the true focal point of the offense. Christian Watson taking another step in his sophomore season, and Romeo Doubs continuing to improve. Plus, the addition of a weapon like Jayden Reed, and a pair of rookie tight ends in Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. The odds of that happening though? Probably not great.
The paragraph in the piece that stood out the most was truly how young this unit it. One of the benefits of having a Cobb or Lazard around is that while they may have not been at the top of the charts in terms of physical gifts, they generally were able to be in the right place at the right time. Having Aaron Rodgers to cover up some of those faults certainly didn’t hurt either (for the most part). However, putting the youth movement in historical context is a bit jarring to see.
According to Mike Clay’s season-long projections and the age data from Pro Football Reference, the average Green Bay target for a wide receiver or tight end projects to go to a player who is 23.4 years old. That would see the team field the second-youngest corps of wide receivers and tight ends going back through 1990, behind only the 2017 Browns, who went 0-16. The Packers aren’t trying to tank, but they’ll be rolling out an even less experienced quarterback group to throw to those receivers than the Browns had in 2017.
Now, Green Bay is not going to go 0-17 (he says with less confidence than he should). The Vegas over-under for Packers wins this year has been right around 7.5 depending on where you look, and that’s probably only because Green Bay is a popular national team that people like to bet on. There’s too much other infrastructure in place, between coaching, to a pass rush, to Pro Bowl- and All Pro-caliber players at linebacker and in the secondary. The Packers aren’t going to go 0-17, but it could be volatile at times. The team will need to hope for the most Aaron Jones-y of Aaron Jones seasons coming up, and need to hope that the regression shown by A.J. Dillon was a blip more so than a trend.
The way that news is disseminated in the summer months with only serve to accelerate the hype train for these youngsters. Christian Watson tearing up the turf on a deep ball from Jordan Love. A Twitter clip of Jayden Reed breaking open a punt return or Romeo Doubs high-pointing a touchdown grab in the end zone. Perhaps its Instagram photos of how jacked Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft are. They all help build the hype. But they don’t do a lot to suggest that the hype will translate to wins in the fall with any sort of certainty.
There’s no doubt that this team is immensely talented. But from a historical perspective, given the youth being counted on, it’s much more likely that the learning curve will be steeper than most fans are anticipating.
