For the first time since 2007, the Green Bay Packers will have a new placekicker. Mason Crosby, Green Bay’s kicker for almost 20 years, remains unsigned. Anders Carlson is the Packers’ No. 1 kicker right now, for better or worse.
Training camp has started, and Carlson’s play has been a cause for concern.
It’s just training camp, but this is a new headache for Packers fans. The kicker position has always been a source of strength in Green Bay. As patient and understanding as the Packers’ fanbase is, a rookie kicker may drive them to their wit’s end. There have been plenty of rookie kickers who have played in front of demanding franchises and disappointed before.
The Minnesota Vikings drafted Daniel Carlson, Anders’ older brother, in the fifth round of the 2018 draft out of Auburn. Despite spending significant draft capital on him, he didn’t last through his rookie year in Minnesota.
Mike Zimmer famously had little tolerance for kicking mishaps, and Blair Walsh’s 27-yard miss in the 2015 playoffs was fresh in their minds. In the second week of the season, the Vikings squared off against the Packers at Lambeau Field. Daniel Carlson missed three field goals in the game, including two in overtime and one for the win at the end of the extra frame. The game ended in a tie, and Minnesota cut him that week.
The Oakland Raiders picked up Carlson, and he has gone on to kick at an almost 90% clip in Oakland and Vegas. He had a 94% field goal percentage in his second season and was an All-Pro last year. Safe to say Zimmer and Rick Spielman gave up on him too soon.
So what if a similar situation plays out for Anders Carlson in Green and Gold?
A rookie kicker is bound to face roadblocks adjusting to the NFL. I doubt anyone expects Carlson to come in and immediately be as good as Crosby was. Heck, Crosby himself, a sixth-round pick like Carlson, was not elite in his first year.
Crosby went 31/39 for a 79.5% field goal percentage as a rookie. He was 100% on extra points. At the time, those stats were good for 26th in the NFL. The top kicker, Shayne Graham, kicked at a 91.2% clip. (To qualify, a kicker must attempt at least 30 field goals.) That would put Mason Crosby at the bottom of the league as a rookie. Still, the Packers stuck with him, and we all know what happened after.
In the past, other rookie kickers have had to be pretty good to remain on the team. In 2021, Evan McPherson and Riley Patterson kicked at 84.8% and 92.9% field goal rates, respectively. They are the only rookie kickers who lasted with their teams all year.
Cade York and Cameron Dicker were both prominent rookie kickers in 2020. The Los Angeles Chargers picked Dicker up mid-season, and he has since been great. He’s kicked at over a 95% rate and has been a stud at Chargers camp. Cade York kicked at a 75% clip his rookie year, and the Cleveland Browns are sticking with the former fourth-round pick this season.
Carlson was a 71.8% kicker in his college career. He had a standout season as a true junior in 2020. He knocked in 20 of his 22 attempts that year for a 90.9% rate. But in his five seasons kicking at Auburn, that seems to be the outlier, not the average. If anything, it proves that he does have that potential. It’s just a matter of being that good consistently.
The Packers are in a transitional year, so the expectations for a kicker to be elite immediately are probably non-existent. Green Bay has the luxury of being able to work with a rookie kicker. There is a balance with that. If Carlson comes out and is kicking like Brucie from The Longest Yard, they may need to explore other options.
Anders Carlson’s rookie season is bound to have some ups and downs. Have patience with the young man. The Packers won’t have a Zimmer-esque reaction if Carlson is not immediately perfect. Should something cataclysmic happen with him, the Packers may have to make some adjustments in the kicking department. But don’t read him the riot act upon his first slip-up. Both Carlson and the Packers have the luxury of time during his rookie campaign.
All stats and data via Football Reference and ESPN.
