A battle for the starting right tackle spot in Green Bay Packers training camp is no surprise. Many experts consider last year’s starter, Yosh Nijman, a solid player, but versatile second-year offensive lineman Zach Tom has a high ceiling. His pass-blocking skills are so polished that Tom basically secured a starting spot before the preseason games. Tom is Green Bay’s third- or fourth-best lineman, depending on how you view Jon Runyan – a great pass blocker and below-average run blocker.
But Tom’s emergence ended up opening another multi-positional battle. He’s a starter, but Green Bay’s offensive coaching staff is still looking to find the best five. And that’s why Tom has taken reps at center. When that happens, Nijman plays at right tackle, and Josh Myers goes to the bench. It’s mostly a battle between Nijman and Myers, highlighting Tom’s ability and versatility.
However, this is not only a matter of who’s better between Nijman and Myers. Nijman is certainly the right answer given what both have done for the Packers throughout their careers. And this comes from a person who’s criticized Myers fairly regularly, including a failed process that led the Packers to take him over Creed Humphrey in 2021. The Kansas City Chiefs’ All-Pro center appeared 50 spots higher than Myers on the consensus big board.
But the final decision to build the offensive line should not be just based on the best five individual players. Instead, it should be in the best combined group. And for Nijman to replace Myers in that context, the difference in performance must be huge. Other factors weigh on the matter, and those indicate the Packers should keep Tom at right tackle unless Myers experiences a huge decline in performance.
There are three primary reasons to keep Tom at RT.
Positional value
The impact of a player is highly dependent on his position. A PFF study conducted after the 2020 season showed that the top 32 tackles in the league generated six wins above replacement. However, the best centers only generated 2.53. It was the least-valuable offensive or defensive position in football, even behind running backs.
Can we say centers don’t matter? Not exactly, because offensive lines are weak-link systems. But it’s much more important, almost three times as much, for a team to have good tackles than good centers. And if the Packers think Tom could be a better tackle than Nijman, that is where he has to play.
I also defended the idea of testing Elgton Jenkins at right tackle last year. It didn’t work because Jenkins wasn’t good at RT, so his move back to left guard was the right decision. But if Tom is good at tackle, there is no reason to move him inside unless Myers really struggles.
Tom is the future at tackle
It’s highly unlikely that the Packers will keep both David Bakhtiari and Yosh Nijman beyond 2023. Bakhtiari is projected to make $21.4 million in 2024, with a whopping $40.465 million cap hit. Nijman is playing under a restricted free-agent tender and is slated to be an unrestricted free agent.
Therefore, if the Packers will most likely keep just one of them, Zach Tom will play at one of the tackle spots. And if he will, it doesn’t make much sense to move him inside in a transitional year for the offense just to move him back outside next season. Meanwhile, Josh Myers is under contract through 2024 regardless of how well he plays. And if he’s as playable as he has been, the Packers should be able to afford him thereafter if they want to.
Bakhtiari’s health
The third point might be the most concerning for the Packers. It’s been almost three years since David Bakhtiari tore his ACL right before the 2020 postseason, but his knee is still an issue.
“You guys have seen what his situation’s been the last couple years,” head coach Matt LaFleur said after Family Night, during which Bakhtiari didn’t practice.
And it’s just one of those things that we’re going to have to be very flexible with. And what I love about it is I know he’s working really hard. Got a lot of confidence. We’ve just got to find ways to get him to Sundays, so this could be the case throughout camp. It could be the case throughout the season in terms of just how much load we put on him and how his knee reacts.
The coaching staff doesn’t seem overly worried about it. Still, Bakhtiari’s practice schedule is ultra-conservative, and it’s hard to know how his knee will hold up through a 17-game season. An offensive line with David Bakhtiari – Elgton Jenkins – Zach Tom – Jon Runyan – Yosh Nijman looks really good.
However, if Bakhtiari can’t play for any period, the Packers will need to address at least two spots and maybe three. Nijman would go from RT to LT, Tom would move from C to RT, and Myers would be the center. That factor doesn’t preclude a change if Nijman is much better than Myers and the lineup with Tom is playing at a much higher level. However, it’s certainly a tiebreaker if the difference isn’t that big.
The Green Bay Packers have a problem many teams would love to have because having six starting-level offensive linemen isn’t common in the NFL. Even if Josh Myers isn’t what the Packers hoped he would become when they drafted him in the second round two years ago, he is still a high-ceiling player who needs to be more consistent. The competition is a way to push him toward that goal.
Meanwhile, Zach Tom was a steal in the fourth round last year, and the Packers need to treat him as an important part of their future. If he’s more valuable at right tackle, that might be his spot with the starters. Yosh Nijman would be a starter in most NFL teams, but the possibility of having him as a swing tackle is highly important for the Packers, especially facing so many uncertainties regarding David Bakhtiari’s present and the future.
