It’s finally draft week. For Green Bay Packers fans, this is the first real chance to see what direction the team will take in their first year without Aaron Rodgers in almost two decades.
On The Athletic Football Show, Robert Mays had good perspective and intriguing questions about Green Bay:
What do the Packers look like, and how do they operate in a post-Rodgers world? It’s not something we’ve gotten to see that often because they haven’t done much in free agency so far. What will this draft tell us about what this version of the Packers will become?
And those are precise considerations. With so few moves since the end of last season, it’s been hard to know what the Packers think about their short- and long-term future.
The coaching staff is almost the same as last year. The only two significant changes Matt LaFleur made were hiring Greg Williams to replace Jerry Gray as the passing-game coordinator, and promoting special teams coordinator Rich Bisaccia, who will also be an assistant head coach. He retained coordinators Adam Stenavich and Joe Barry, and most of the position coaches.
The Packers haven’t touched their personnel much either. There are some losses in free agency, but nothing that changes the fortunes of the franchise. Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Dean Lowry, Jarran Reed, and Krys Barnes signed elsewhere. Green Bay re-signed restricted free agent Yosh Nijman and kept Rudy Ford and Justin Hollins. But besides them, it was mostly special teamers: Keisean Nixon, Tyler Davis, Dallin Leavitt, and Eric Wilson. Their outside additions are special teamers too: safety Tarvarius Moore and long snapper Matt Orzech. So, at least until Thursday, offense and defense have the same faces Packers fans know.
“I believe in our group, I really do,” Brian Gutekunst said in January. “I think every year’s new, and this is a hard league. But I believe in the players – certainly there’s going to be change within our roster, there’s no doubt about that – but I believe in the organization, how we do things. I believe in the process. Sometimes things don’t go your way, and you look at it, and you’ve got to be able to tweak things, but I believe in the people in this building, and I’m excited for 2023.”
What type of prospect will they look for?
The Packers drafted Eric Stokes in 2021 because they needed a cornerback to play opposite Jaire Alexander (they hadn’t found Rasul Douglas yet). Last season, they took Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt as defensive needs. Brian Gutekunst used the draft to round out a team that, in the minds of most football people, was good enough to compete for a championship. But the team was in a different place in 2018 and 2019, Gutekunst’s two first drafts as the general manager. That’s why he got players like Jaire Alexander, Rashan Gary, and Elgton Jenkins, who were perceived as developmental players.
The kind of prospect Gutekunst takes might indicate what he truly thinks about the roster-building timeline. So it’s important to take a look at his draftees’ age, positions, and general characteristics.
Value or needs?
Immediately after the first round last year, I wrote that the Packers have a different perspective than most of the outside world about positional value. That’s why they drafted an off-ball linebacker and a defensive tackle in the first round. This year, several mock drafts indicate the Packers may take a tight end early, which is not exactly an analytically driven decision.
Tight end and safety are Green Bay’s biggest needs. But those are positions with limited value, this year’s safety class isn’t great. So what will the Packers do? Will they attack their needs with players they like even if the value isn’t there? Or will they have a longer-term view to build the future of the team?
What will they do at quarterback?
The Packers brought in three quarterbacks among their pre-draft visits, and they couldn’t be more different players. Hendon Hooker is 40th on the NFL Mock Draft Database consensus big board. Therefore, he is expected to be drafted around late first, or early in the second round. The others are Sean Clifford, 360th on the consensus board, and Tanner Morgan (521st), probably undrafted options.
During the process, they also talked to Jaren Hall (163rd), Clayton Tune (197th), and Holton Ahlers (411th). They’ll most certainly add a quarterback during the draft and maybe another one right after it. Still, it’s yet to be seen if it’s going to be an early option to eventually compete with Jordan Love for the starting job, or eventual starting upside – or if Gutekunst will be targeting a backup. In 2008, Ted Thompson did both. He took Brian Brohm in the second and Matt Flynn in the seventh. Flynn ultimately was the better player and established himself as the long-term backup behind Aaron Rodgers.
Players on the way out
In 2020, the Packers expected to lose Aaron Jones or Jamaal Williams in free agency, so they drafted a running back, A.J. Dillon, in the second round. The Detroit Lions signed Williams, and Dillon became the secondary option behind Jones. Smart teams think ahead and attack future needs early. Green Bay’s lack of anticipation last year was costly. They could have taken a tight end or a safety in 2022 and now have huge needs at those positions.
On the surface, tackle is not a need because they have David Bakhtiari and Yosh Nijman as projected starters, plus Zach Tom as a talented young option. But Bakhtiari has a projected $40-million cap hit for 2024, and Nijman is in a contract year. Therefore, it’s reasonable to expect the Packers would take an offensive tackle early — as early as the first round — if they think one or both of them won’t be in Green Bay much longer. Running back is also a future need because Jones is getting older and more expensive, while Dillon is going to the final year of his rookie deal.
The Green Bay Packers have been quiet so far, besides the Aaron Rodgers debacle. But, inevitably, the draft week will show some of their cards and what their plan is for the future — in 2023 and beyond.
