When the Green Bay Packers signed Robert Tonyan to the practice squad in 2017, the goal was to develop him from an elite athlete into a complete tight end. In selecting Luke Musgrave with the 42nd-overall pick, the Packers are hoping to not only replace the production that Tonyan showed flashes of in 2020 and 2022 but take a much more polished pass-catching prospect and turn Musgrave into a definitive TE1 as soon as possible.
Once the Packers gave Tonyan a bigger opportunity in 2020, he racked up 52 catches and an impressive 11 touchdowns over 16 games. After a knee injury derailed his 2021 season, he bounced back with a career-high 53 catches. However, he had a career-low 8.9 yards per catch and only two touchdowns in 2022. Tonyan signed with the Chicago Bears in the offseason, of course, leaving the Packers needing to replace an important position for a first-time starting quarterback in Jordan Love.
While Tonyan was an elite athlete, with a Relative Athletic Score near 8.6, Musgrave is at another level. He has rebounded nicely from an MCL injury in college at Oregon State, posting a 4.61 40-yard dash time. He also had the fastest 10-yard split of any tight end at the NFL Combine. By taking him in the second round, Green Bay made the highest selection of a tight end by the franchise since they selected Bubba Franks with the 14th-overall pick in 2000.
“We’re excited about what he brings to the table in terms of speed, the ability to stretch the field,” Packers vice president of player personnel Jon-Eric Sullivan said following the draft in April. “We really liked the skillset. Watching that kid move around, watching him block, watching him run routes… We feel like where he is now and where he can go is exciting. He will only grow and get better as time evolves.”
That excitement has built throughout the preseason, as Musgrave has taken the vast majority of the first-team reps. Take preseason stats for what they’re worth, but he’s run routes on 84% of offensive snaps and earned 22% of the share of targets, both of which are in line with fantasy football TE1-type numbers. He also appears to be one of the primary answers for the Packers over the middle of the field, where his big ol’ frame can find a pocket to sit in, and he can rely on his explosiveness to turn up field for those all-important yards after the catch.
It’s not an accident that the best teams in the league have productive, dynamic tight ends. It’s a stretch to say that Musgrave will be in the same class as Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, or Mark Andrews as a rookie. However, it’s also not a coincidence that the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Baltimore Ravens are all top teams that feature the tight end heavily in their offense.
Musgrave’s primary role in his rookie campaign will be to complement Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, much in the same way that Tonyan was a terrific third option to Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The balance that Musgrave can provide to the volume of throws that will find their way to Doubs and Watson’s field-stretching ability looks like it will leave a substantial role for the rookie tight end. He may not catch 11 touchdowns like Tonyan did in his 2020 breakout season, but he could certainly break Franks’ franchise-best rookie mark of 363 yards this season. If Musgrave stays healthy for 17 games, Franks’ mark is only an average of 21 yards per game, which feels like a very attainable feat.
Outside of Tonyan, Green Bay has been incredibly reliant on veteran tight ends nearing the end of their careers. They’ve run the gamut from experiments like Martellus Bennett and Jimmy Graham, to guys with some flashes like Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers, to draft picks that haven’t quite panned out like Jace Sternberger and Josiah Deguara. Musgrave, and Tucker Kraft to a lesser extent, have a chance to produce at a high level for the Packers, and they might be called upon to do so from the very first week.
