On Friday, Indianapolis Colts beat writer Zach Hicks posted that the team may include tight end Mo Alie-Cox among in deals to make in the next few days. In return, Indianapolis would want to add an offensive lineman. And that sequence of events makes the Green Bay Packers and the Colts ideal trade partners before finishing up their initial 53-man rosters on Tuesday.
The Nijman factor
Earlier in the offseason, I wrote that the Packers could end up trading an offensive lineman at some point before the regular season because of how deep they are at tackle. While the situation isn’t as secure for the interior offensive line, Green Bay has a surplus of talent at tackle. They have five playable (or better) options: David Bakhtiari, Zach Tom, Rasheed Walker, Yosh Nijman, and Caleb Jones. Besides that, left guard Elgton Jenkins can also play tackle — and he has incentives in his contract tied to how many snaps he plays at left tackle.
It’s a good problem to have and a rare one in the NFL. But it’s also an opportunity for the Packers to extract value to compensate where they are not as deep.
Yosh Nijman was probably one of the most unfortunate in Packers training camp. Not that he has done anything bad. His performance is as solid as it’s always been. However, the development of younger options made Nijman fall on the depth chart. After starting camp battling for the starting right tackle job, he decidedly lost the spot to Zach Tom. And, more recently, he has also been surpassed by last year’s seventh-round pick Rasheed Walker, who practiced and played as the left tackle when David Bakhtiari was out. Walker also had reps at right tackle with Tom moving to center throughout last week.
Nijman is still a valuable depth piece because solid tackles are hard to find, and his experience in NFL games is real. But he’s playing under a one-year, $ 4 million restricted free-agent tender. The value is not absurd, but it’s not ideal for the fourth tackle on the roster, especially when two of the three players ahead of him are cheaper options. Moreover, he will be an unrestricted free agent next offseason, so it will be hard for the Packers to keep him beyond 2023. If that’s the case, it makes sense to trade him now.
Tight end depth
The Green Bay Packers invested heavily in their tight end group this year, using two top-100 draft picks on Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft. However, that doesn’t mean the depth is good. While Musgrave has been the starter since Day 1, Kraft’s role isn’t as significant — and it’s always hard to expect much immediate impact from rookie tight ends.
The Packers let Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis walk in free agency, and both ended up signing with the Chicago Bears. So Josiah Deguara, who has been established as a de facto fullback, and Tyler Davis were the veteran options. The problem is Davis tore his ACL and is out for the season. In him, the Packers lost a player who has a relatively low ceiling but was useful as an in-line blocker and special teamer. More importantly, the team is thin at tight end in general because Austin Allen and Henry Pearson haven’t shown enough to make the team.
Why Alie-Cox?
The first thing to think about when a team is willing to trade someone is why. But the Colts have justifiable reasons to trade Mo Alie-Cox. First, as Hicks mentioned, offensive line depth is more valuable to them now. Furthermore, the team has invested in tight end over the last two years.
The most significant was drafting Jelani Woods in the third round last year. But they also drafted Kylen Granson in the fourth round in 2021, Drew Ogletree in the sixth last year, and Will Mallory in this year’s fifth round. Finally, the team has added veteran Ricky Seals-Jones. The Colts have a surplus at tight end* like the Packers have at tackle — which makes a deal viable.
Alie-Cox is a big target at 6’5”, 267 lbs. And the tight end has an interesting history because he didn’t play college football. Instead, he prioritized basketball at Virginia Commonwealth University. After transitioning to football, Alie-Cox signed as an undrafted with the Colts in 2017 and developed into a useful player.
He hasn’t been impressively productive, but he had two consecutive seasons with over 300 yards in 2020 and 2021 and has scored nine touchdowns over the last three seasons. Moreover, he played 93 special teams snaps last year, 20% of the Colts plays in that area of the game, and that’s something appealing to the Packers to replace Tyler Davis‘ role.
Money
It also works in terms of cap space. The Packers would send Nijman’s $4.3 million deal to the Colts. This is particularly interesting because Green Bay could have reworked his deal, adding void years to create cap space. We don’t know if Nijman didn’t want to do that to force an extension or if the Packers decided to keep the base salary intact to facilitate an eventual trade.
Mo Alie-Cox is a little bit more expensive. His deal has a $4.8 million base salary and $510k in per-game bonuses. ($480k of which are likely to be earned, and therefore hit the cap this year). However, the Packers would have the ability to restructure it, opening up $2 million with a simple restructure or up to $3.2 million adding void years. Alie-Cox is still under contract for 2024, with an estimated $5.92 million salary, but that’s essentially a team option because there are no guarantees left.
Alie-Cox will be 30 years old in September and is not exactly the cheapest option. But he would give the Packers a useful receiving weapon, especially in the red zone, plus tight end depth and special teams versatility. If the teams are able to find a middle ground, a Nijman for Alie-Cox swap would be helpful for both, and that’s something NFL franchises are looking for when finalizing their regular-season rosters.
*Ed. note: An earlier version of this article said the Colts had a surplus at tackle. We regret the error.
