There’s no one reason that summarizes why the Green Bay Packers are struggling this season. It’s been a healthy combination of foibles on offense, defense, and special teams. But Green Bay’s poor performance on second down is one area that stands out offensively, both in the play calling and the ensuing execution. Being more effective on second down, especially in the first half, would help this young offense stay out of more third-and-long scenarios. It would also have a positive trickle-down effect for the rest of the Packers’ offense.
Everyone knows about Green Bay’s struggles in the first half. And, of course, frequently going three-and-out generally means you’re not really executing on any of the three downs. However, after watching the game and checking the play-by-play log after, it became evident that the Packers are making very little effort to push the ball downfield on second down. They’ve had minimal success running the ball in those situations too.
A.J. Dillon had a seven-yard run on second-and-eight on Green Bay’s second play of the game. But it came on a drive that still didn’t result in a first down. The Packers accumulated exactly zero yards over their next five second-down plays, which includes Jon Runyan Jr.’s holding penalty and a D.J. Wonnum sack that turned a second-and-five into third-and-17. Three incomplete passes, a zero-yard run, and that sack were the results of the second-down efforts on Green Bay’s first five drives of the game. That led to an average of third-and-9.2 yards to go.
So what’s the issue? It certainly starts with execution. The montage below shows the number of yards and conversions the Packers left on the field against Minnesota on Sunday. Green Bay only moved the sticks four times on first down, consistently putting pressure on themselves to convert later in the set of downs. As the Packers struggled on first down, it seemed like the mindset shifted to just getting enough yards to find a way to move the chains, as opposed to still finding ways to grab chunk yardage.
The first-half struggles on first down tell the story:
- A short screen pass to Aaron Jones that went off his hands.
- Jones’ run up the middle that the Vikings stuffed for nothing.
- An incomplete short pass to Romeo Doubs.
- Finally, a medium-deep shot to Dontayvion Wicks, but still the same result. The Vikings broke it up before it got to the receiver.
The Packers rank 26th in the league in first downs per game at 17.4, which isn’t great. Fewer first downs would be more tolerable if the offense was generating chunk plays rather than needing to move the sticks 10 yards at a time. However, Green Bay is also near the bottom of the league in explosive plays, with just 16 pass plays over 20 yards, good for 28th in the league. They also have only three runs over 20 yards.
Green Bay has been surprisingly decent on third down, converting at a 40% clip to be firmly in the middle of the pack at 14th in the league. Still, their inability to generate big plays means that the offense needs to be consistently productive across all three downs. Therefore, the Packers’ struggles on second down are culpable in that regard. First down hasn’t helped the cause, but their second-down play calling has been largely unimaginative and for the most part, unproductive. Considering that Green Bay has been average on third down, yet well below average overall, that leaves second down as a primary culprit for why the offense have struggled.
A healthier, or at least more stable, offensive line would help create better rushing attacks on early downs. It would also give Jordan Love a better pocket to throw from when he wants to take a shot. There are so many passes that glance off hands, aren’t timed right in traffic, or fall just short when Green Bay needs them most. If the Packers could find more of a rhythm early on, and perhaps even converting on a few more second downs, the offense would see some dramatic improvement.
