The Green Bay Packers have arguably the best running back duo of the NFL in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — at least for now. Beyond 2023, Green Bay’s backfield situation isn’t as clear. This season will serve as an important way to gather more information before deciding what the future holds at the position.
At the moment, only two Packers running backs are under contract for 2024. Aaron Jones is one of them, and he commands an almost prohibitive $17.7 million figure for the final year of the extension he signed back in 2021. The other is seventh-round rookie Lew Nichols III. A.J. Dillon, Tyler Goodson, Lucas Patrick, and Emanuel Wilson all will hit free agency in some capacity.
The Jones conundrum
Jones is by far the best running back on the Packers’ roster and has been since 2017. The difference between him and Dillon is significant, even with the same context around them. Jones is an elite runner in terms of efficiency, and he’s near the top of every down-by-down metric list around the NFL.
But there are two important considerations regarding his future. The first is his contract. It’s unrealistic for the Packers to carry such a high cap hit for a running back, and they would have to adjust his deal again. Jones took a significant pay cut from $16 million to $11 million to stay in Green Bay this year. He is slated to make $12 million next season, so it’s hard for him to justify another big pay cut unless his performance drops – which would be another reason for concern by itself. The team could also make a simple restructure by kicking more money to future void years, but this scenario would hamstring them 2025. With the current numbers, the Packers are already getting $6.6 million in dead money from Jones’ contract, so adding more to that is a questionable approach.
The extension is still possible, but finding the right value is difficult. Jones is one of the best running backs in Packers history, but the position is always tricky because running backs’ production can suddenly decline. RBs from the 2016 and 2017 classes are struggling already, including the top names. The Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings cut Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook, respectively. Leonard Fournette and Kareem Hunt are still free agents. Alvin Kamara was one of the least-efficient runners last season, although remains on the New Orleans Saints. Jones has had fewer carries throughout his NFL career, so this might extend his productive years, but the risk is still there if the Packers give him a third contract.
What to do with Dillon?
The Packers used a second-round pick on Dillon in 2020 because Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams were entering the last year of their rookie deals. They re-signed Jones, though, and Dillon has been an RB2 throughout his entire tenure in Green Bay.
He is a solid runner and a good change-of-pace back after Aaron Jones, but his efficiency and down-by-down productivity don’t justify a big investment. He is in a contract year, and I recently wrote that the Packers should only keep him if he’s good enough to take over the starting job from Jones or bad enough to cost something near the minimum salary. None of these scenarios look likely at the moment, but Dillon must define his value this season.
The younger guys
Lew Nichols is under contract for four years but, as a seventh-round pick, it’s impossible to know his role. Right now, he’s fifth on the depth chart.
Ahead of him are two other players who were inside the organization last season. Patrick Taylor spent most of the season on the active roster and is now RB3. However, he’s mostly a special teamer, and it’s hard to envision a bigger offensive role for him considering what he’s shown. Moreover, he will be an restricted free agent. The Packers might extend him a tender or let him hit the unrestricted market and re-sign him for less money.
Tyler Goodson is one intriguing option. He was an undrafted player last year and spent the entire 2022 season on Green Bay’s practice squad. He is a better offensive option than Taylor, and because he wasn’t on the active roster, he has at least two more cheap years. Although his current contract is signed through 2023, he will be an exclusive-rights free agent, which means the Packers could bring him back for a minimum-salary tender.
And there’s Emanuel Wilson, an undrafted player signed in May after spending some weeks with the Denver Broncos. Until proven otherwise, he’s just a camp option.
The Packers have several questions throughout the roster this year, and this is particularly true for the running back position. What happens in 2023 will define if Green Bay extends or re-signs some of their players or if they need to add external options via free agency or the draft in 2024.
