Kickers score more points than any other position in football, and Mason Crosby has been one of the best kickers in NFL history. He’s 14th all-time and first in franchise history with 1,806 career points. He’s also been clutch over his 16 seasons, hitting 11 of 16 possible game-winning kicks, including eight of nine in his last seven seasons. Most impressive? He’s fourth in all-time playoff scoring, meaning he’s performed at an elite level when the games mattered most. He’s been unquestionably clutch in most pressure situations.
Brian Gutekunst waffled when asked about bringing Crosby back for his age 39 season. At the Scouting Combine in February, he told the media that he expected Crosby to have a stronger leg and more power for kickoffs in 2023, seemingly suggesting that he would return.
However, his comments a month later at the NFL Annual Meetings are far less definitive. “We’ll never close the door, we’ll kind of see where that goes,” said Gutekunst of Crosby, “He had a good year this past year. Again, we’re limited a little bit financially. But we’d never say never.” It’s unclear what changed for Gutekunst regarding Crosby, but I wouldn’t be the first person to accuse him of being a poor communicator.
Crosby is in rare company. Few kickers have played for 16 seasons in what is consistently one of the coldest and most difficult places to kick a football. He was the second-oldest kicker in the NFL last season behind Robbie Gould (40), who plays in comparably warmer San Francisco.
Kicking can be an old man’s game. Most kickers play their final season over age 30, but career longevity is often tied to weather and domes.
Of the kickers to play more seasons than Crosby in the last 25 years, most played most of their careers in domes or warm cities – or finished their careers in domes or warm cities. That includes Matt Bryant (18 seasons), Sebastian Janikowski (18 seasons), Phil Dawson (20 seasons), John Kasay (21 seasons), Jason Hanson (21 seasons), Gary Anderson (23 seasons), John Carney (23 seasons), Adam Vinatieri (24 seasons), and Morten Andersen (25 seasons).
Based on the careers of his peers, Crosby isn’t likely to kick for 20 seasons in Green Bay. And he shouldn’t.
Crosby Can’t Kick Far Anymore
Crosby was dead last in the league in touchback percentage last season, and his 60.7 average kickoff yards are the second-lowest of his career. Whether injury or age, the drop-off was steep in 2022. This one passes the eye test. His 15 touchbacks were 25 fewer than the prior five seasons when he kicked over 40. Let that sink in. That’s like hitting with a nine-iron instead of a Big Bertha driver.
He made only one of four kicks beyond 50 yards in 2022, and he just barely made it. Whether with kickoffs or long field goals, the leg strength is just not there. And there’s no realistic scenario where Pat O’Donnell splits kickoff duties. Teams simply don’t operate that way. Consistently allowing the other team’s returner to bring the ball out only increases the chances of a big return. Regardless of how improved Rich Bicaccia’s unit is, this is a fundamentally flawed strategy.
He’s scored a lot of points, but has he been good?
Since Crosby joined the NFL in 2007, he has led the league in field goal percentage only once (2020) and has never made a Pro Bowl. According to Paul Noonan of Acme Packing Company, 60 kickers have attempted at least 100 field goals since 2007, and Crosby ranks just 53rd in field goal percentage in that time. He’s been average on paper.
He’s also had some downright awful performances. In 2018, he missed five-straight field goals in Detroit. And there was the broken theme-park ride that was the 2021 contest against the Cincinnati Bengals, where he and Evan McPherson missed five combined game-winning field goal opportunities. In 2012, he was so bad he had to compete for his job in the 2013 preseason. Crosby has been nails in the playoffs but has had an up-and-down career.
Assuming Crosby is healthier, and his kickoff percentage returns to his career norms, is there value in bringing him back for his 17th season?
No.
The 2023 Packers do not have realistic expectations to compete for the division with a first-year starting quarterback. Remember that in Aaron Rodgers’ first season as a starter, the team had just lost the NFC title game and then finished 6-10. A kicker is not going to move the needle.
No matter how clutch Crosby is, a kicker commanding more than the league minimum salary in his 17th season and allegedly coming off an injury does not offer as much value as a young kicker with a stronger leg making the league minimum. They could go with Ramiz Ahmed or Parker White, or use a draft pick on a kicker this year. Football is a cold business, but the team needs to develop a cold-weather kicker in 2023 and beyond, not hang onto a kicker past his prime.
That does not mean that Crosby’s career should be over. A warm-weather or dome team with playoff aspirations and money to spend could benefit from Crosby’s ability to make clutch kicks. This list includes the Dallas Cowboys, 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Minnesota Vikings, among others. If he doesn’t retire, I’d expect him to latch on with one of these teams. He is one of the best to ever do it in the playoffs, after all.
