The Green Bay Packers have a defensive personnel built to play a more aggressive style. That’s nothing new. But Joe Barry’s system isn’t necessarily supposed to be aggressive. To his credit, Green Bay’s defensive coordinator has adapted what he does to fit his players, and it tends to be modestly effective when he does.
The Packers have had a mediocre defense this year. However, their numbers are exponentially better on late downs when Barry is more willing to use man and sticky coverages. But Green Bay usually plays soft zone on early downs, and the defense gets worse.
Over the first three weeks of the season, the Packers are 20th in EPA/play and 28th in success rate on first and second downs. Even against the pass, an area in which the structure of the defense is supposed to be good, it’s been below average – 19th in dropback EPA. Meanwhile, the unit is 10th in EPA/play and seventh in success rate on third and fourth downs, besides being seventh in dropback EPA.
What the Packers are trying to do
According to sources close to Green Bay’s coaching tree, Joe Barry has never fully mastered the Vic Fangio style of defense. After all, he only coached it under Brandon Staley for one season with the Los Angeles Rams. Before that, Barry had coached behind Rod Marinelli and Monte Kiffin, where he developed his football roots.
Barry leans on the classic cover 2, even though he learned and taught the Tampa 2 system for some time. Barry also worked for three years under Wade Phillips in Los Angeles. Phillips has a different style, with a 3-4 front and sticky man coverage. However, this is not the philosophy Barry prefers to run.
When the Packers hired Barry two years ago, Matt LaFleur’s idea was to run Brandon Staley’s system, but that hasn’t worked out as he had hoped. That’s why, since the middle of last season, Green Bay has made changes, and the structure of the unit is much more related to classic cover-2 principles. That also means less quarters coverage for the secondary and less one-and-a-half gap technique for the front.
Adaptations
Barry has made significant changes to his defensive approach to fit what Green Bay’s secondary players do best. Last year, the Packers used man coverage in 37% of the snaps. The share has been 48% over the first three games of the season, which is a positive sign of progress. The front has also been more unpredictable for offenses, elevating the share of stunts and blitzes. In general, it’s been a more aggressive attitude.
And the improvement in terms of results is real. Last year, the Packers finished the season 27th in EPA/play and 27th in success rate. Combining all downs this year, they are 14th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate.
Last Sunday, the defense was able to shut down the Saints’ offense in the second half, even without Jaire Alexander and Carrington Valentine.
“In a game like that, you gotta change coverage principles, which we did,” Barry said after the comeback win. “The coverage that all those guys did, it was a great job. And we had new guys in there, we had Corey Ballentine. He was just called up (from the practice squad), he was gonna be our fifth corner. All of a sudden, he plays the entire second half.”
What can the Packers improve?
The trend of being better on late downs is not new. Last year, the Packers were 29th on first and second downs in EPA/play and ninth on third and fourths. That’s probably also related to a higher level of aggressiveness on late downs when Barry is willing to play man coverage.
So how can the Packers extrapolate this production to be a better team overall? The first point is to challenge wide receivers at the line of scrimmage. Green Bay is 31st in the NFL in press coverage rate, which means they are giving opposing offenses space to operate between zones.
Philosophically, it’s built to avoid big plays. And it works to a certain point — that’s why the Packers are better in EPA/play than they are in success rate. But NFL offenses are so efficient nowadays that if the opponent can operate with ease, they won’t commit mistakes. And Green Bay’s defense is based on the idea of forcing turnovers and negative plays. Those are unsustainable and unpredictable for the most part, though, so Barry should adjust to broaden what has consistently worked.
Regarding personnel, the edge group is the best part of Green Bay’s defense. Rashan Gary is still limited coming back from injury, but he has been able to generate pressure frequently. Preston Smith and rookie Lukas Van Ness have also been impactful. If the secondary is allowed to challenge initial reads from the opposing quarterback, there is a good chance the front will be able to affect the passer and avoid big plays — which is a priority for the coaching staff.
On Thursday, the Packers face the Detroit Lions. And the matchup seems to be positive — last year, Detroit’s offense was fifth in DVOA, and Green Bay still allowed only 15 and 20 points in the two rivalry games.
If Barry is able to keep the improvement and expand it to all downs and a favorable matchup, the defense can finally have a solid performance throughout the game.
