Jordan Love is going to have a unique situation with the Green Bay Packers in 2023. He is a first-year full-time starter, so expect ups and downs. At the same time, he’s going into his fourth year as an NFL player, which means there is pressure for him to perform because he spent three seasons learning Matt LaFleur’s scheme, and the Packers will probably have to look for alternatives if he doesn’t show signs of being a real franchise quarterback.
Even though it would be unfair to put unrealistic expectations on Aaron Rodgers’ replacement, Jordan Love enters a relatively good situation. The Packers have a strong overall infrastructure around the quarterback, and stats back this up. Several factors should ease the transition and Love’s performance throughout the season.
Open targets
The Packers have a young receiving corps, but that doesn’t mean it’s bad. And in terms of scheme, Green Bay has one of the best in the league — don’t let the fact that Aaron Rodgers didn’t take advantage of it last year fool you. Since 2017, Rodgers is third in percentage of throws made to open receivers, after Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes.
If that means Rodgers doesn’t like to take risks, it also means that the scheme is pretty effective to allow its receivers to get open — even if the stat includes two years in the Mike McCarthy era.
As a prospect, Love was known to be too willing to take risky throws. But his physical ability mixed with open throws has the potential to create an explosive passing offense.
Timeouts and delays
The Packers have been terrible at managing their timeouts. A recent study from NFL Operations showed Matt LaFleur was the worst NFL head coach in timeouts wasted with the offense on the field between 2019 and 2021.
SumerSports made a graphic about how much head coaches add win probability over expected last season. LaFleur was 12th. Among the top 15, he was first in fourth-down decisions. However, he was by far the worst in wasting timeouts, both in the first and in the second halves, and tied for worst in delay of games.
This might be a Matt LaFleur thing, but probably isn’t. As great as Rodgers has been, he often takes a lot of time to adjust plays and read defenses. It paid off multiple times, but it also cost them sometimes.
With Love, the expectation is that the offense will play more within the proposed structure, with fewer pre-snap adjustments, which will probably mean fewer wasted timeouts and delay of games.
Rodgers’ mediocre numbers
Love probably won’t be as good as 2014 Aaron Rodgers. But the downgrade in quarterback performance for the Packers is not going to be from 2022 to 2023. It has already happened – from 2021 to 2022. You might argue it was because of a thumb injury, the lack of experienced weapons, age, or simply Rodgers being checked out. But it is unquestionable that the future Hall of Famer didn’t play like one last season.
Unsurprisingly, Rodgers was much worse than the rest of the Packers’ offense. The quarterback was 21st in DVOA, 21st in EPA/play, and 21st in success rate. Green Bay’s offensive unit ended the season as 11th in DVOA, 11th in EPA/play, and sixth in success rate. The run game was obviously a big factor. The offensive line is good, and the Packers have arguably the best running back duo in the NFL in Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. But even the passing game at large was better than Rodgers alone: The team was 16th in dropback EPA.
Even with Rodgers playing a below average season — not only for his standards but in general — the Packers had decent offensive production. So Love doesn’t need to be prime Rodgers for that to happen again. He has to be average at first and develop from there.
RPO model
The Packers have a pre-snap RPO model that isn’t very common around the NFL — most teams prefer a post-snap model. While both types of options have pros and cons, Green Bay’s philosophy has created a smart offensive approach, and the team has taken advantage of it. The Packers were first in dropback rate against heavy boxes, and they are also fourth in rush rate against light boxes.
That premise makes it easier for Love because of two factors. First, it’s simpler to adjust before the snap and eventually change the call. Second, when Love throws, it’ll frequently be against heavier boxes and, therefore, against fewer secondary players covering Green Bay’s receiving weapons.
Individual improvement
Love has shown signs of evolution since the Packers drafted him in 2020. I wrote more in-depth about it in a Love-specific piece, but it’s valid to point out how much better Love looked against the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022 than he did against the Kansas City Chiefs in his first career start. Love’s PFF grade went from 30.0 to 85.7 in those two games. It’s a ridiculously small sample size, but that’s what we have to analyze before the season begins.
“He believes in himself, he cares about everybody around him, and we’ve seen him just come in consistently and just work, work, work,” running back Aaron Jones said. “He did it the right way, he waited his time, and you never heard one peep or complaint out of him. He has everyone’s full respect, and we’re all going to go lay it out on the line for him.”
Jordan Love is a complete unknown at this point in his career. But he is going to have a solid supporting system to thrive. If he doesn’t, well, it will probably be time for the Packers to look for other options anyway.
