The Aaron Rodgers saga will be a yearly consideration from now on. The MVP quarterback has already said that he will evaluate where he’s at in his career after each season. He repeated that after the loss to the Detroit Lions, who eliminated the Green Bay Packers last Sunday. But the Packers are also a part of the decision, even though it looks like general manager Brian Gutekunst wants to stand pat, waiting for everything to resolve itself. In the last couple of weeks, multiple reports indicate a trade is a realistic scenario.
Last year, the Packers had a significant opportunity to self-evaluate thoroughly and thoughtfully. It was easy to see it would be almost impossible to be as good as the team had been in the two prior seasons, especially after losing Davante Adams. There was a chance to get better with the picks, but it was a long-term consideration. So, if the Packers couldn’t reach the Super Bowl in 2020 and 2021 with stronger rosters, how realistic was it to expect a championship-caliber team in 2022?
That was the main argument to trade Aaron Rodgers and move on to Jordan Love. The Packers would have gotten at least what the Seattle Seahawks got for Russell Wilson or more. If Love was good, terrific. But even if he wasn’t, Green Bay would have the ammunition to acquire another replacement. Instead, the Packers decided to keep Rodgers and give him a three-year, $150 million extension.
Now it’s time to do the same evaluation again. Considering the potential development of wide receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs and a possible ascension from what looks like a strong 2022 draft class, the Packers have more chances to be better in 2023 than they had last season. That’s why I wrote that the young players are a good argument for the Packers to keep Rodgers for one more year.
However, there are more complicating factors now than there were a year ago — precisely $60 million of them. If the Packers keep Rodgers, who will be approaching 40, the cap hit for 2023 is affordable, but the long-term financial impact is rough. Moreover, it’s far from certain that Love will agree to wait another year as a backup. He might very well ask for a trade, and reasonably so.
Rodgers had already played some less-than-stellar seasons, and 2015 was the best example. But that case was much more related to the lack of weapons around him. The 2022 version of the offense wasn’t loaded with talent, but for the first time in his career, Rodgers’ individual performance was a significant part of the problem. If Rodgers isn’t the reason the Packers win, does it make sense to pay so much to keep him?
That’s why, after the game on Sunday, Rodgers said he senses the Packers could go with a younger option at quarterback.
“I think to assume it’s a foregone conclusion [the Packers want Rodgers back] would be slightly egotistical. So I’m going to be a realist here,” Rodgers said.
Considering how many teams would still be willing to give No. 12 a shot to keep playing, it’s fair to expect a good package in return for a trade. Even if the Packers aren’t able to get as much as they would have last season, with Rodgers coming off back-to-back seasons as the MVP of the league, interest from two or more teams would be enough to generate competition and increase the price.
Love had a solid preseason and a promising showing against the Philadelphia Eagles during the regular season. Therefore, there are even more reasons to give him a chance than last year, when his last impression was bad performances against the Kansas City Chiefs in his lone start and against the Detroit Lions in the second half of the season finale.
By trading Rodgers this season, the Packers would still face a $40.3 million dead money hit. That seems a lot, and it is, but it’s still the best way to get out of his deal. If Rodgers plays for the Packers, his cap hit will be $30 million, so the dead money would add only $9 million to the cap this year and free up everything in the future. If Rodgers plays for the Packers in 2023 and retires or is traded right after, the dead money in 2024 will be $68.21 million. And $76.8 million the following year.
Rodgers is clearly still a good quarterback. As he once said, a down year for him is a career year for most QBs. However, his performance hasn’t been enough for the Packers to win it all, decline is increasingly likely, and his contract makes it very difficult for Gutekunst to build a strong roster around him.
While there is a chance Rodgers goes to another team and still plays at a high level — maybe even winning a championship — that’s not a Packers problem. They have to do what’s best for them. And, in this case, as hard as it might be, trading Rodgers this offseason probably is the best outcome for Green Bay.
