As far as receiving targets go, it’s the Wild West in the Frozen North. The Green Bay Packers’ second-year wide receivers, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, and dynamic running back Aaron Jones should see the lion’s share of targets. However, it’s a wide-open space for the rookie receiving options to make their mark.
Green Bay drafted five pass-catchers in 2023, including three Day 2 picks. The rookies will get plenty of opportunities in the passing game, but rookies also aren’t always good.
For tight ends, the transition to the NFL is a difficult one. Needing to know the offensive line playbook on top of the route tree makes it hard to thrive immediately. On the other hand, there isn’t much veteran tight end experience on the Packers roster to take away snaps. With these two facts in mind, what’s the realistic expectation for second-round pick Luke Musgrave?
Through OTAs, Musgrave looks like a star in shorts (same). All the usual comments about waiting to see how they look in real competition and in pads applies, but Musgrave was a consistent standout during OTAs. A big man is simply not supposed to move as quickly and smoothly as we’ve seen from Musgrave.
As a prospect, Musgrave brings a lot to be excited about. An incredibly gifted athlete, Musgrave might have the highest potential ceiling of this gifted crop of tight ends. Musgrave’s predraft knocks were his issues with drops, his limited snap count, and that he missed most of last season thanks to a knee injury. Like Watson last season, the Packers are hoping Musgrave’s best football is ahead of him and he can build on that elite athleticism.
Musgrave joins an overall-inexperienced tight end group. Josiah Deguara leads the unit, but he’s never had a featured role in the passing offense. Tyler Davis has some experience but is mostly a special teams guy. Fellow rookie Tucker Kraft rounds out the group.
It certainly benefits Musgrave that Green Bay is going to spend a lot of time in 12 personnel, or running two tight ends. The Packers already love 12 personnel; they utilized two tight end sets on first down 37% of the time, third in the league. And that was with a fairly one-dimensional tight end setup: Marcedes Lewis was a primary blocker, and Robert Tonyan was the receiving threat.
Brian Gutekunst has said on multiple occasions that he likes Musgrave and Kraft because of their versatility as do-it-all tight ends. The more a tight end can do, the more Matt LaFleur can disguise his offense, and we know he loves the illusion of complexity. For teams will the ability to run the ball, 12 personnel even further confuses defenses, who will have to adapt to anything. And Green Bay has two excellent running backs. That 12 percentage will skyrocket once the rookies acclimate.
Musgrave has already been a starter in 12 personnel through OTAs opposite Deguara.
So, on one hand, Musgrave is a gifted but raw prospect who will need time to develop into a complete NFL tight end. On the other, he’ll get plenty of opportunities to earn playing time thanks to a lack of depth and personnel preference. He’s likely already one of the better receivers on the team. So what does a realistic stat line look like for Musgrave?
History says to bet the under on rookie tight ends (but don’t bet from an NFL stadium). Of the top 10 rookie receiving seasons, only two came in the last 20 years. The Atlanta Falcons’ Kyle Pitts finished his rookie season with 69 catches for 1,026 receiving yards and a touchdown in 2021. The New York Giants’ Evan Engram had 64 catches for 722 yards and six touchdowns in 2017, his highest numbers while a member of the Giants.
More often, rookie tight end stats look like that of the Arizona Cardinals’ Trey McBride, the first tight end taken last year. McBride finished last season with 29 targets, 265 yards, and one touchdown.
Pitts’ season is almost impossible to replicate. Atlanta primarily used him as a pure receiving threat and also didn’t really have anyone else to funnel the ball to.
Musgrave will get plenty of designed targets his way as a receiver, but the offense won’t run through him. We don’t know what sort of target share Deguara will see. Rodgers rarely looked his way but Love seemed to look to the former Bearcat more frequently. Regardless, defenses will mostly build around stopping Watson, Doubs, Jones, and Dillon early on.
Musgrave also has interesting competition from Kraft, his fellow rookie. Kraft has similar strengths to Musgrave and could see those starting snaps across from Degaura if he catches onto the playbook more quickly. (By the way, most of the above arguments could also apply to Kraft. But with Musgrave being the fourth tight end off the board and a second-round pick, I chose to focus on him.)
Choosing to be optimistic, something like 42 catches, 502 yards, and four touchdowns, feels like a respectable but realistic number for Musgrave. Someone has to catch targets from Jordan Love, and there isn’t a lot of experience on the roster. As a new starter, Love may have ups and downs, but he also doesn’t quite have favorite targets yet. It’s hard to predict rookie stats, in general, but I’d expect a solid first-year showing from Musgrave.
