The Green Bay Packers’ plan for Jordan Love has been incredibly similar to the way the franchise approached Aaron Rodgers 15 years earlier. First, they drafted a talented but raw quarterback in the first round when a future Hall of Famer was still trying to win a second championship. They developed him as a backup for three seasons. Ultimately, they traded the previous starter to give the younger quarterback his shot. As soon as they trade Rodgers to the New York Jets, ironically, what is the next step?
It may be Love’s second contract.
Pay early, pay less. Using this logic, Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman reached an extension with quarterback Jalen Hurts. By doing so, he avoided awkward negotiations like the Dallas Cowboys had with Dak Prescott and the struggle the Baltimore Ravens are going through with Lamar Jackson. Even if it doesn’t pan out exactly how teams envisioned, it’s possible to get out of these deals. The Eagles traded Carson Wentz, and the Los Angeles Rams offloaded Jared Goff.
Technically, Love is in the final year of his rookie deal. However, the Packers will probably exercise his fifth-year option in May, guaranteeing his 2024 season for $20.3 million. Moreover, the team could theoretically apply three consecutive franchise tags to Love, tying him to the Packers until 2027. The third tag is 140% of the previous salary, so the realistic path connects him to Green Bay through 2026.
For context, let’s look at how Ted Thompson handled the Rodgers situation in 2008. It might be a good indicator of how the new regime will operate — Brian Gutekunst was a Packers scout at the time, after all.
When the Packers drafted Rodgers in 2005, he signed a five-year contract with the Packers — there were no rookie-scale contracts at that time. Therefore, he signed his deal through 2009, which was his second year as a starter, exactly how the Jordan Love situation will transpire. But the Packers decided to extend Rodgers in the middle of his first year as a starter. Love doesn’t need to be like Patrick Mahomes and immediately play great for the Packers to extend him.
In 2008, Rodgers signed his extension during Green Bay’s bye week, on October 31. In his first seven games that season, Rodgers showed signs he could be a franchise quarterback, but he was far from perfect. Rodgers completed 65.6% of his passes (145/221) for 1,668 yards (238.3 per game), 12 TDs (1.7 per game), and four INTs (0.6 per game). He had a 98.7 passer rating and a 4-3 record. Those are all good numbers, especially for a first-year starter, but not something that’s impossible to achieve for a player who’s been in the NFL for three-and-a-half years.
Price and market
In 2008, Rodgers signed a six-year, $63 million contract with the Packers, with $20 million in guarantees. The salary cap was $116 million in 2008, so Rodgers’ $10.5 million average per year meant he occupied 9.05% of the total cap. In today’s reality, 9.05% of the cap ($224.8 million) would mean $20.3 million — coincidentally, the exact number of Jordan Love’s fifth-year option. Giving Love a five-year, $101.5 million contract would be a no-brainer for the Packers if the quarterback is even mediocre, but that’s not how the NFL works anymore.
In 2008, Peyton Manning was the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback. The Indianapolis Colts gave him a contract with an average of $14 million per year, or 12% of the salary cap. Jalen Hurts is today’s highest-paid player. This week, he signed a contract that averages $51 million per season, or 22.7% of the salary cap. Doing the math, Love’s deal would be around $38 million per season, which is less than the New York Giants paid Daniel Jones, and more than the $25 million average the Seattle Seahawks gave Geno Smith. While it seems fair, it’s not an easy pill to swallow.
There would be a lot of insecurity from both sides. The Packers would probably still have questions about Love after half a season, and the player would want a higher ceiling to his deal in case he breaks out. Both considerations are fair, so there are two paths for them to reach a long-term deal.
The first would be to wait until the offseason to structure a contract. Both parties would have more information, and the guaranteed fifth-year option provides both parties more security. The second way, which could be smarter if the Packers want a discount, is to create a performance-based deal.
Geno Smith‘s contract with the Seahawks is a good comparison. Smith’s base is $25 million per year. But he has $2 million escalators for passing yards, passing touchdowns, completion percentage, passer rating, and team win metrics. If he hits all five goals, Smith earns an additional $5 million incentive, so he can get $15 million in addition to his base.
For example, Love can sign a four-year, $120 million deal that averages $30 million per year but features incentives to improve his earnings to get him around the top-tier quarterbacks. Everyone will be happy if he reaches those incentives. If he doesn’t, the Packers will have the flexibility to find another quarterback, and Love will still have life-changing money.
Finding a great quarterback is the most difficult task in the NFL. When a team does that, it’s smart to lock him down as soon as possible, because the yearly salary cap increase will only make the deal more expensive. The Packers have to be smart. If they determine that Jordan Love has the potential to be really good after some games, it makes sense to find a way to give an extension as soon as possible.
