Speculation and rumor talks have run rampant around the Minnesota Timberwolves this off-season. Most of the scuttlebutt has involved the likelihood that Karl-Anthony Towns would be moved this summer. However, following a very successful draft night for Minnesota’s front office, myriad rumors suggesting the Timberwolves desired to keep Towns and run it back next season quieted most of the trade KAT now. Those calm seas didn’t last long, though. Tim Connelly and his staff wrapped up 6’10” big man Naz Reid for the next three seasons with a $42 million contract extension. Thus, sparking more discussions on if Towns will be traded sooner rather than later.
Reid’s new contract is team-friendly, which is surprising because rival teams had significant interest in the 23-year-old center. According to Spotrac, Reid will be making an annual average salary of $14 million over the next three seasons. Spotrac projects his contract to reach a maximum of just over $15 million come the 2025-26 season.
Although Reid’s extension seems suitable for both sides, the Timberwolves still had to dip into the mid-level exception to complete it. Therefore, they will most likely be operating as a luxury tax team next season. Furthermore, moving KAT relatively soon may have been easier following Reid’s short-term extension.
However, it seems highly unlikely that Minnesota will actually pull the trigger on a KAT trade this summer. Towns has one year left with the Timberwolves until his supermax extension goes into effect. This coming season will be KAT’s highest-paid year in Minnesota – his salary is just over $36 million. However, the 2024-25 season is where Towns’ contract will jump to an estimated $52.3 million and continue to rise from there.
Money has been the driving force for all of Towns’ trade scuffles. However, from a skill-set point of view, the threat of losing KAT this summer could be detrimental to Minnesota’s chances of competing for that elusive championship the team has been attempting to gear up for since last summer.
Minnesota’s preferred starting five of Mike Conley, Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, Towns, and Rudy Gobert only played seven games together last season. Either KAT was hurt, Gobert was resting his ankle, McDaniels was sitting with a broken hand, or a combination of all three. Yet, the Timberwolves still found a way to make the playoffs and gave the 1-seeded Denver Nuggets somewhat of a challenge in the first round. I won’t sit here and say everything was evergreen once Towns returned last season. The Wolves still had some flow issues with KAT and Gobert on the floor simultaneously.
When Towns and Gobert shared the floor, the Timberwolves had a +0.43 net rating. When the two were off the floor, the Wolves had a +9.91 net rating, according to PBPstats.com. Even more telling, the only time Minnesota’s net rating was negative when looking at on/off stats between those two was with Gobert on and Towns off – the Wolves had a -8.80 net rating in 321 total minutes.
Even though the offense appeared to flow better via the eye test, the numbers confirm just how high of an impact Towns brought on both ends. However, despite KAT’s incredible impact, Minnesota may be able to run an equally smooth offense with Reid starting in place of Towns.
Reid is a much different player than Towns, of course. But the two both pose similar threats on the offensive side of the ball. Reid’s ability to have the ball in his hands and dissect opposing defenses makes him one of the most versatile power forwards/centers in the league. However, when Naz shared the floor with Rudy, things went sour. The Wolves had a -11.34 net rating in the 198 total minutes where they ran the 4 and 5 together. Some of that poor play could be attributed to Gobert’s lack of health all season long; Minnesota’s team-wide numbers weren’t pretty in the Stifle Tower’s first season.
Regardless, I fully expect the Wolves to figure out how to play with Gobert as they did toward the end of last season. And after this upcoming season, we could possibly see a future with a former undrafted player filling the shoes of a multi-time All-Star in a championship-contending starting lineup. However, until then, Timberwolves fans should enjoy some peace of mind that a franchise-altering trade won’t happen in back-to-back summers.
