Nickeil Alexander-Walker is off to a slow start this season. By starting him at small forward and as the primary perimeter defender, the Wolves gave NAW a huge opportunity to solidify himself as a crucial member of the rotation. But he didn’t fully seize his opportunity. It’s a small sample size, but his numbers do not look good.
Alexander-Walker has only been in Minnesota for eight months, but he’s been streaky since arriving in the Mike Conley trade. After the Utah Jazz traded him to Minnesota in February, NAW hit 46.2% of his three-pointers. However, he only converted 30.4% of his shots from deep in March. As a result, he was in and out of the rotation by the end of the month, struggling to find consistency. That was a microcosm of NAW’s NBA career. He has struggled to find consistent minutes because of his inconsistent play. At 25, it might not be unreasonable to expect that this is just who he is as a player.
That’s what makes him such a challenging player to judge. In the most competitive games of the season, the play-in game against the Oklahoma City Thunder and the first-round Western Conference playoffs against the Denver Nuggets, NAW stepped up magnificently in Jaden McDaniels’ absence. Against Oklahoma City, Alexander-Walker limited his superstar cousin Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to 22 points and three assists, well below his season averages of 31-6-5.
Alexander-Walker played good defense against the Nuggets, and he averaged 40% from three. While no Wolves fans thought he was on the same level as McDaniels, he did more than enough to fill a key bench role.
But Alexander-Walker hasn’t built off his strong playoff performance this season. NAW alone isn’t responsible for Minnesota’s 1-2 record, but it’s definitely a factor.
NAW has averaged 20 minutes per game in the three games so far, including two as a starter in place of the injured McDaniels. In that time, he has averaged 3.3 points per game and has only made 16.7% of his three-point attempts. It’s a small sample size, and the eye test indicates he’s been better than his counting stats. Alexander-Walker should be cementing his role as a crucial part of the rotation after a strong playoff performance and playing well for Canada in the World Cup. Instead, he’s creating more questions than answers.
In some cases this season, coaching decisions have not helped NAW out. During the Atlanta Hawks’ rapid third-quarter comeback on Monday night, Chris Finch used NAW as a point guard and primary ball handler. While Alexander is the kind of combo guard that has become popular in the modern NBA, there is little about him that suggests that he should play at the point for any significant number of possessions. NAW’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.68-to-1 per 36 minutes. For context, Conley’s is 3-to-1. Although Conley is a pure point guard, it gives context to the level a player needs to be at to play that role. Given Alexander-Walker’s slow start, it didn’t make much sense to use him in a primary ball-handling role while Atlanta was mounting a comeback at home.
The Wolves needed McDaniels back. Even in a bad loss, he hit 5 of 6 from the field and made both of his three-point attempts. Much gets made of the defensive role that McDaniels plays on the team, but the key is he’s a far more competent fourth or fifth offensive option on the team.
Compared to NAW, McDaniels is far more efficient from three and turns the ball over less. Since they have both been in the league, the only spell that NAW turned the ball over less than McDaniels was from last year’s trade deadline through to the summer. While NAW is a capable fill-in defender, his offensive inconsistency makes him an imperfect replacement.
In its current form, Minnesota’s roster needs consistency, especially from its rotation players. The league knows that Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns will do most of the offensive work. Therefore, guys who can be consistent from three, move the ball well, and keep turnovers to a minimum are extremely valuable. NAW has ensured that on the defensive end. He’s unable to guard every position like McDaniels. But he’s an adequate, if only temporary, solution to a McDaniels gap. Offensively? The jury is out. However, he needs to find that confidence and consistency rather quickly if he will be a key member of this team’s rotation.
