Every season, one of the most heavily debated subjects in the NBA is who the most valuable player in the league is. Last year, the debate between Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic got heated on ESPN, and it took over the narrative of much of the season. I often find it annoying how much MVP debates take over the news cycle, partially because the league doesn’t hand out the award until the end of the regular season, and the debates start almost immediately.
Admittedly, though, I have found the debates boring because the Minnesota Timberwolves haven’t had a player in the MVP conversation since the glory days when Kevin Garnett won the award in 2004. Selfishly, the conversation is way more entertaining when a player on your team is in it.
But for the first time in 20 years, Timberwolves fans can rejoice — or at least participate in the debates. They have Anthony Edwards, a genuine MVP candidate, on their team. Before bruising his hip on Wednesday night, Ant had taken the league by storm, averaging 26.6 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. He’s a genuine two-way star who has improved every year since he entered the league.
Ant has been so good this year that he has firmly established himself as a part of the conversation as one of the 10 best players in the league. Every week, Michael C. Wright releases an MVP latter on the NBA’s website in article form, where he tries to rank the 10 most valuable players in the league. Before his injury, Ant ranked in 6th place, only behind Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Jayson Tatum.
Wright had Edwards on the MVP watch list since the beginning of the season. He wrote about Ant in his MVP ladder preview on October 27th, after the Wolves had only played one game. In it, he said the following:
Don’t let the slow start fool you. Yes, Edwards struggled with his shot in Minnesota’s season-opening loss. But at 22, Edwards ranks as the youngest in NBA history to drain 600 or more career 3-pointers (604). Expect the guard to ride the momentum generated over the summer in FIBA play.
Wright was right that we should expect Ant to ride his summer momentum; he has been outstanding since. When the first ladder rankings came out about two weeks later, Ant ranked 7th and has since moved up to 6th. However, he has remained outside the top 5 looking in. So how can Ant crack the top 5 and potentially even become a front-runner for the MVP? There are a few characteristics of past MVPs that tend to be consistent.
Most importantly, he needs to get healthy, and the Timberwolves must continue to be successful. If you scroll through the list of past MVPs, almost all were on teams that could be considered in title contention or on a team that has already won a title. Nikola Jokic won two MVPs before winning a championship. However, the Denver Nuggets went to the Western Conference Finals the year before he won his first MVP. After Jokic won his second MVP, people were reluctant to give him a third in a row. It was partially because he hadn’t won a title yet and because only 3 players in history have won 3 MVPs in a row — Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Bird.
Thus, for Edwards to crack the top 5, the Wolves will likely have to stay at the top of the conference for most of the year and end the season as a home-court advantage team. They may even have to make a deep playoff run before the voters consider him an MVP candidate. Consider that Ant’s stats have been slightly better than last year. Still, he’s getting twice the amount of recognition this year now that the team is consistently good.
Edwards is averaging about 2 more points per game this season and is doing it with the same efficiency, which is great. Before the Oklahoma City Thunder game, Ant’s effective field goal percentage was 52.8%, the same as the year before. So far, the most significant increase in Ant’s stats has been that he’s averaging 0.9 more assists per game than last year, shooting 0.8 more free throws per game, and making 12% more of those free throws. Those are all significant improvements. However, they aren’t huge increases in the flashy stats that tend to be easily viewable through highlight plays. Instead, they are improvements in the areas that can help his team play better together.
Ant took a bigger leap last year and was successful individually, but the Timberwolves lacked synergy. Injuries derailed their ability to have time to play as a full unit before the playoffs. As a result, it was unlikely that he or anyone on the Wolves would get a look for MVP honors.
Fortunately, we are almost a quarter of the way into the NBA season, and the Timberwolves have gotten off to one of the best starts in franchise history. They currently sit atop the Western Conference with a 13-4 record. They are also tied for the best defensive rating in the NBA, with the Houston Rockets at 106.8, the 13th-best offensive rating at 113.2, and the 4th-best net rating at 6.4. The Wolves have all the important characteristics of a team that can earn a top-four seed in the West and make a deep playoff run. However, that could mean Ant won’t be considered a top 5 player in the NBA until next season.
Another possible way he could break into the top 5 would be by having a ridiculous individual season with absurd stats. Russell Westbrook tore apart the league in 2016-17, averaging a triple-double with 31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 10.4 assists. Despite this jaw-dropping stat line, the Thunder ended the season 6th in the Western Conference with a 47-35 record and lost to the Rockets in the first round of the playoffs. It was rare when an MVP wasn’t on one of the best teams in the league and didn’t have an MVP pedigree. However, he was so individually dominant that it didn’t matter.
It’s unlikely Ant will ever average a triple-double; only two players in NBA history have done it. Westbrook has done so four times, and Oscar Robertson did it once in 1962. However, triple-doubles are not the end all be all of stats; they’re just fun.
Edwards excels in several other areas that could make him stand out from the pack in the MVP race, including his defense. Ant has become widely recognized as one of the best two-way shooting guards in the league, if not the best. But defense doesn’t show up in box scores like counting stats, especially for individual players. Still, it seems clear that Edwards has made a defensive leap. Ant is likely the second-best point-of-attack defender on the best defensive team in the league. So far, the team hasn’t declined defensively since Jaden McDaniels‘ injury, mainly because Ant and Nickeil Alexander-Walker has stepped up in his absence.
While offense is still Ant’s specialty, he’s easily one of the best defenders of the current 10 players on the MVP ladder. Only Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, and maybe Joel Embiid are better than him. Prime LeBron James was also a dominant defender. But at 38 and having played almost 1500 professional games, LeBron is understandably as spry as he used to be. If Ant consistently improves on defense, that could quickly vault him into the top 5. He’s already an All-NBA-level offensive player. If he also becomes All-Defense level, that’s the true definition of an MVP.
With the success of the Wolves has come widespread recognition of the talent of many of the players from national media journalists and NBA fans. The Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green incident got so much attention that it got parodied on Saturday Night Live. Though the skit had little to do with actual basketball, the comedian playing Draymond joked that Gobert is “the fourth-best player on Minnesota.” While one could argue over the order of Minnesota’s second- through fourth-best players, the fact that the writers implicitly acknowledged that the Wolves have 4 good players is progress. Now that the spotlight is also on Ant, if he continues to improve, it will only be a short amount of time before he will be acknowledged as a top 5 player in the league.
