Pitching is hardly static. Teams constantly shuffle players while players adapt their approaches during the season and in the offseason.
The Minnesota Twins acquired Anthony DeSclafani in what will likely be their highest-profile move of the offseason. They sent Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners for DeSclafani, right-handed reliever Justin Topa, and prospects Gabriel Gonzalez (OF) and Matt Bowman (RHP).
DeSclafani has been a solid starter for the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants from 2015 to 2023. However, he hasn’t looked the same since 2021. DeSclafani has lost four-seamer velocity and much of his changeup and curveball effectiveness. He could benefit from some pitch tweaks, if not a transition into the bullpen.
It’s not that DeSclafani isn’t still a quality pitcher. He’s had an expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) of 4.11 and 4.04 the last two years, respectively, and managed a 4.69 xERA last season.
Perhaps most importantly, he’s battled injuries in 2022 and 2023.
An elbow injury derailed what looked like a promising 2023 season. DeSclafani had a 2.13 ERA and 3.28 FIP in 38 innings and six starts. Things soured quickly with a ten-hit, five-run outing on May 8, which began a 12-start, 61.2-inning stretch of 6.57 and 5.01 FIP before ultimately being ruled out for the season in September.
It’s difficult to know how the season would’ve gone had he remained completely healthy. Regardless, DeSclafani has had multi-year regression trends in crucial areas. Most importantly, with his four-seamer.
DeSclafani has never had an elite four-seamer. In 2021, the pitch had a 10.7% swinging strike (SwStr) rate compared to the league average 9.8%. He wasn’t blowing batters away every pitch, but it was a solid base to build off.
He only pitched 19 and 99.2 innings in the last two seasons. Still, the decline is present.
The following chart shows the decline of DeSclafani’s four-seamer. I’ve derived the version Stuff+ below from Jeremy Maschino’s MLBPitchProfiler:
Without the same four-seamer he used to have, DeSclafani has shifted to using more sinkers and sliders.
DeSclafani led the league in slider usage last season among starters who pitched at least 50 innings. It’s a good slider. It’s had called strike plus whiff rates (CSW%) of 32.1%, 33.3%, and 32.6% in 2021, 2022, and 2023. The best way to describe it is as a gyro slider or bullet slider; he used it 44.8% of the time last year.
DeSclafani has decreased his four-seamer usage from 33.2% in 2020 to 12.5% in 2023. However, he increased his sinker usage from 18.1% to 27.8%.
While the slider has performed well, the rest of his arsenal has had issues.
DeSclafani threw his four-seamer in the zone only 38.5% of the time, 0th percentile among starters, leading to a strike rate of 52.3%. It’s not the type of pitch he can build a foundation upon. DeSclafani curveball suffered from similar issues, rarely finding the zone (26.6%, 5th percentile) and making it difficult to steal strikes.
His changeup couldn’t coax chases anymore. With a 5th percentile O-Swing% (chase rate) of 19.1 in 2023, batters made excellent contact and rarely whiffed.
DeSclafani struggled to find the zone with his four-seamer and curveball. However, his sinker was too hittable because he threw it in the heart of the zone. Opposing batters often punished it with a 10th percentile ideal contact rate (ICR) of 51.1%. That means hitters either hit a barrel, flare, burner, or a solid 51.1% of the time they hit a ball in play.
Aside from his slider, DeSclafani generally didn’t have a strike pitch or a put-away pitch in 2023 after years of downward trends. At 33, he might not be able to regain his past ability, especially his four-seamer velocity.
DeSclafani will undoubtedly alter his arsenal, especially considering he is joining a new staff of pitching coaches. Those changes could take a few different forms. The Twins could move him to the bullpen, hoping he can regain velocity for an inning or two as a long reliever.
A more exciting option could be following Zac Gallen’s lead. The Arizona Diamondbacks ace has a unique approach, and he has a 133 ERA+ in his four-year career between the Miami Marlins and Arizona.
Gallen peppers the bottom half of the zone with his cut-ride four-seamer. He paints the bottom left side with cutters and sliders while doing the same to the bottom right with changeups, all with curveballs beneath the zone. It’s an approach I’ve learned as the U approach, or “neckbeard” approach, due to its appearance on a pitch plot. He relies on called strikes with his four-seamer while tunneling all of his other pitches off it.
DeSclafani can only take so much from Gallen’s pitch mix. Gallen throws a cut-ride four-seamer, while DeSclafani has quite a bit of arm-side run. DeSclafani throws a sinker, while Gallen throws a cutter. Gallen is a natural supinator, making it easier for him to get that signature cut on his four-seamer, while DeSclafani is a pronator.
They have some significant similarities, though. DeSclafani and Gallen throw changeups, sliders, and knuckle-curves with similar movement profiles. Their four-seamers have unimpressive velocity and similar flat vertical approach angles (VAA) above expected.
The following numbers are entirely arbitrary, but I mention them to visualize a possible new approach for DeSclafani.
He could throw roughly 15% four-seamers, all primarily low in the zone where their respectable VAA could allow them to fall for called strikes. Gallen can throw so many four-seamers for called strikes partly because of the bizarre amount of cut or just lack of arm-side run, stunning hitters. DeSclafani may have to nip at the zone’s edges more, which requires excellent command.
DeSclafani could also throw about 20% sinkers backdoor against righties for called strikes or inside to jam them. Against lefties, he could throw them inside, or “front hip,” for called strikes. His sinker has plus horizontal movement that should allow him to do this effectively. He already has a good feel for his slider, which would continue to play well down and away against righties. If 35% of his pitches are four-seamers and sinkers, he might throw another 35% sliders, then throw changeups and curveballs the rest of the time.
However, his changeup will be critical to his success in the “neckbeard” approach. Changeups are supposed to feel more natural for pronators because of the importance of the pointer finger. It’s a pitch that DeSclafani should have solid command of.
He threw his far more often early in counts last year than in previous seasons, which could help explain why hitters didn’t budge on it as often. With more changeups, perhaps 15% of the pitches he throws, and with 15% curveballs, he might be able to find a new strategy to help the Twins.
DeSclafani still has a solid skill set, but his role and pitch mix may differ with Minnesota. And that’s a good thing.
